by Al McMordie
Friday, Mar 26, 2021The first 32 games of this tournament are in the books (36 games, if you include the "First Four" round), and the Sweet 16 starts this weekend with a Saturday/Sunday schedule for the first time.
The match-ups are as follows:
Saturday:
1 Baylor vs 5 Villanova
3 Arkansas vs 15 Oral Roberts
8 Loyola-Chi vs 12 Oregon State
2 Houston vs 11 Syracuse
Sunday:
1 Gonzaga vs 5 Creighton
6 USC vs 7 Oregon
1 Michigan vs 4 Florida State
2 Alabama vs 11 UCLA
Let's take a look at how the seeds have done, historically, against the spread in the Sweet 16 round. This data is from 1991 through 2019 (there was no Tournament played in 2020).
1 seeds: 53-43-4 ATS
2 seeds: 38-32-2 ATS
3 seeds: 28-36-1 ATS
4 seeds: 24-33-3 ATS
5 seeds: 15-18-2 ATS
6 seeds: 16-16-1 ATS
7 seeds: 10-10-1 ATS
8 seeds: 5-4-1 ATS
9 seeds: 5-2 ATS
10 seeds: 9-12 ATS
11 seeds: 9-6-1 ATS
12 seeds: 7-10 ATS
13 seeds: 3-2 ATS
14 seeds: 1-0 ATS
15 seeds: 1-0 ATS
16 seeds: none
In Sweet 16 match-ups, the better-seeded team has gone 113-111-8 ATS, including 10-6 ATS as an underdog, but just 7-14 ATS off an upset win (Arkansas and Loyola-Chi are off upset wins). The worse-seeded team has gone 51-48-4 ATS off an upset win (Oregon, Oregon State, Oral Roberts, and Syracuse), but 8-13 ATS off a point spread loss. Overall, favorites are 108-112-8 ATS in the Sweet 16 round.
Now, let's review how various point spread ranges have done:
Underdogs of +3.5 or less: 37-34-4 ATS
Underdogs +4 to +7.5: 45-40-2 ATS
Underdogs +8 to +11.5: 22-26 ATS
Underdogs of +12 or more: 8-8-2 ATS
Finally, some other ATS situations to note:
Same-season revenge: 11-9-1 ATS (Oral Roberts, Oregon)
Off double-digit wins (and foe not): 58-42-4 ATS (Florida State)
Off double-digit cover (and foe not): 55-51-2 ATS (Villanova, Oral Roberts, Florida State)
Off back-to-back covers (and foe not): 57-54-2 ATS (Villanova, Syracuse, Gonzaga, UCLA, USC (but Oregon only played 1 NCAA Tournament game))
Good luck, as always...Al McMordie
The match-ups are as follows:
Saturday:
1 Baylor vs 5 Villanova
3 Arkansas vs 15 Oral Roberts
8 Loyola-Chi vs 12 Oregon State
2 Houston vs 11 Syracuse
Sunday:
1 Gonzaga vs 5 Creighton
6 USC vs 7 Oregon
1 Michigan vs 4 Florida State
2 Alabama vs 11 UCLA
Let's take a look at how the seeds have done, historically, against the spread in the Sweet 16 round. This data is from 1991 through 2019 (there was no Tournament played in 2020).
1 seeds: 53-43-4 ATS
2 seeds: 38-32-2 ATS
3 seeds: 28-36-1 ATS
4 seeds: 24-33-3 ATS
5 seeds: 15-18-2 ATS
6 seeds: 16-16-1 ATS
7 seeds: 10-10-1 ATS
8 seeds: 5-4-1 ATS
9 seeds: 5-2 ATS
10 seeds: 9-12 ATS
11 seeds: 9-6-1 ATS
12 seeds: 7-10 ATS
13 seeds: 3-2 ATS
14 seeds: 1-0 ATS
15 seeds: 1-0 ATS
16 seeds: none
In Sweet 16 match-ups, the better-seeded team has gone 113-111-8 ATS, including 10-6 ATS as an underdog, but just 7-14 ATS off an upset win (Arkansas and Loyola-Chi are off upset wins). The worse-seeded team has gone 51-48-4 ATS off an upset win (Oregon, Oregon State, Oral Roberts, and Syracuse), but 8-13 ATS off a point spread loss. Overall, favorites are 108-112-8 ATS in the Sweet 16 round.
Now, let's review how various point spread ranges have done:
Underdogs of +3.5 or less: 37-34-4 ATS
Underdogs +4 to +7.5: 45-40-2 ATS
Underdogs +8 to +11.5: 22-26 ATS
Underdogs of +12 or more: 8-8-2 ATS
Finally, some other ATS situations to note:
Same-season revenge: 11-9-1 ATS (Oral Roberts, Oregon)
Off double-digit wins (and foe not): 58-42-4 ATS (Florida State)
Off double-digit cover (and foe not): 55-51-2 ATS (Villanova, Oral Roberts, Florida State)
Off back-to-back covers (and foe not): 57-54-2 ATS (Villanova, Syracuse, Gonzaga, UCLA, USC (but Oregon only played 1 NCAA Tournament game))
Good luck, as always...Al McMordie
