NCAA Basketball: Florida State/Michigan Preview, Odds and Prediction - 03/28/2021

by Alec McMordie

Florida State plays Michigan in a Sweet 16 matchup in the East region on CBS at 5:15 PM ET.

The Seminoles advanced to the Sweet 16 with a 71-53 upset victory against Colorado as a 2.5-point underdog on Monday. Anthony Polite scored a career-high 22 points in the win. The junior is averaging 10.2 points-per-game, and he is among five players scoring at least 9.2 points-per-game for Leonard Hamilton. Senior M.J. Walker leads the team with a 12.3 points-per-game scoring average.

Florida State ranks 13th in the kenpom ratings with an 18-6 record. They finished 11-4 in the regular season of the ACC before losing to Georgia Tech, 80-75, in the conference championship game. They were seeded fourth in the East region.

The Seminoles rank 14th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency at kenpom. They are 19th in the nation with an offensive rebounding rate of 34.8%, and they are making 38.2% of their 3-pointers, 16th nationally. The Seminoles ranks 31st nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. They have an opponent’s field goal percentage of 43.9% inside the arc, which is the 10th lowest mark in the nation. They block 14.6% of their opponent's shots, the 11th best mark nationally. They are vulnerable to teams that crash the offensive glass. Their opponents rebound 31.6% of their missed shots, ranking 296th nationally.

Michigan defeated LSU, 86-78, as a five-point favorite on Monday. The Wolverines fell behind by nine points early before rallying for the victory. Eli Brooks and Chaundree Brown each scored 21 points. The seniors are averaging 9.7 and 7.0 points-per-game. Hunter Dickinson added 12 points with 11 rebounds. The freshman is averaging 14.2 points-per-game and 7.5 rebounds-per-game. Franz Wagner had 15 points with seven rebounds to improve his 12.8 points-per-game and 6.3 rebounds-per-game averages.

The Wolverines are without Isaiah Livers, whose recent stress fracture in his foot likely has him out for the rest of the season. The senior was scoring 13.1 points-per-game while adding 6.0 rebounds-per-game and 2.0 assists-per-game. Junior Brandon Johns takes his place in the starting lineup. The former blue-chip recruit under John Beilein scored seven points with five rebounds in 27 minutes on Monday.

The Wolverines rank third at kenpom with a 22-4 record. They won the Big Ten regular-season title with a 14-3 mark. Their three losses were against Illinois, Michigan State, and Ohio State. Michigan is the only Big Ten team that made the Sweet 16. They earned the top seed in the East region.

Michigan ranks eighth in adjusted offensive efficiency at kenpom. The Wolverines are 18th with an effective field goal percentage of 55.2%. They are making 38.5% of their 3-point shots, ranking 11th nationally. Michigan is ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency at kenpom. They are sixth in opponent’s effective field goal percentage with a 44.5% mark. They rank third nationally by limiting their opponents to just 42.4% shooting inside the arc.

Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis is the site. BookMaker lists Michigan as a 2-point favorite with the total set at 143.5. The winner plays the victor of the UCLA/Alabama matchup in the East regional final on Tuesday.

Computer prediction:  Michigan 72 Florida State 71

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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