NBA System of the Week

by Al McMordie

Monday, Jun 16, 2025
The 2025 NBA Playoffs will no doubt be remembered for all the late heroics.  The Indiana Pacers have authored several spectacular comebacks.  In the first round, they overcame a 7-point deficit in the final 40 seconds of overtime to stun the Milwaukee Bucks.  Similarly, in the second round, they were down 119-112 with less than 48 seconds remaining, but outscored the Cleveland Cavaliers, 8-0, to win 120-119.  Then, in the NBA Finals, they stormed back from a nine-point deficit in the final three minutes of Game 1 to upset the heavily-favored Oklahoma City Thunder, 111-110.  Unfortunately for Indiana, OKC turned the tables on it in Game 4 by rallying back from a double-digit deficit to win 111-104, as a 6-point road favorite, leveling the series at 2-games apiece.

The series now shifts back to OKC's Paycom Center for Game 5 tonight.  The Thunder have been installed as a 9.5-point home favorite, and the over/under is 224.  For our NBA System of the Week, we're going to focus on the NBA Finals.  One of the more reliable angles involves playing on certain teams off SU/ATS losses.  This particular angle cashed in Game 4 with the Thunder, and it has its next play tonight on the Pacers in Game 5.  What we want to do is play on any team away from home in the NBA Finals if it is off a SU/ATS loss.  Since 1990, our system has clocked in at 47-28-1 ATS, 62.6%.  Even better:  if our 'play-on' team is catching 5 (or more) points, then our angle zooms to 19-7-1 ATS, 73.0%.  And, with the Pacers getting 9.5 points, they do fall into this 73% tightener.

Good luck, as always...
Al McMordie

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