by Al McMordie
Saturday, Apr 11, 2026Tomorrow is the final day of the NBA's regular season. Many teams are already locked into a particular playoff seed, or know that they won't be making the post-season at all. So, it's a tricky day because of the lack of incentive on the part of a lot of teams.
Still, I do like the end of the regular season, as it does offer some good betting opportunities, if you know where to look.
One of the things I like to do is focus on teams playing their final home game of the season. Of course, for half the league, that would be in the final game. But for the rest of the teams, it might have occurred in Game 81, 80, 79, etc., depending on how the schedule broke down.
Because it's the end of the year, I like to assure that the team I'm betting on will have motivation to win. One way to do that is to focus on taking favorites. Another is to play on revenge-minded teams. For our NBA System of the Week, we are going to take teams favored by more than 5 points that are playing with revenge in their final home game of the season.
Since 1990, these home teams have gone 105-61-6 ATS (63.2%).
On Sunday, there are currently four teams locked into this system:
Toronto (-21) vs. Brooklyn
Dallas (-6.5) vs. Chicago
Minnesota (-7) vs. New Orleans
San Antonio (-9.5) vs. Denver
Of course, there's nothing wrong with 63.2%. But I always like to see if I can improve a system.
With this particular angle, we can boost our stats to 76-35-2 ATS (68.4%) if our home team is NOT off a SU/ATS loss. Two of the four teams fall into that tightener: San Antonio and Minnesota.
Good luck, as always...
Al McMordie
Still, I do like the end of the regular season, as it does offer some good betting opportunities, if you know where to look.
One of the things I like to do is focus on teams playing their final home game of the season. Of course, for half the league, that would be in the final game. But for the rest of the teams, it might have occurred in Game 81, 80, 79, etc., depending on how the schedule broke down.
Because it's the end of the year, I like to assure that the team I'm betting on will have motivation to win. One way to do that is to focus on taking favorites. Another is to play on revenge-minded teams. For our NBA System of the Week, we are going to take teams favored by more than 5 points that are playing with revenge in their final home game of the season.
Since 1990, these home teams have gone 105-61-6 ATS (63.2%).
On Sunday, there are currently four teams locked into this system:
Toronto (-21) vs. Brooklyn
Dallas (-6.5) vs. Chicago
Minnesota (-7) vs. New Orleans
San Antonio (-9.5) vs. Denver
Of course, there's nothing wrong with 63.2%. But I always like to see if I can improve a system.
With this particular angle, we can boost our stats to 76-35-2 ATS (68.4%) if our home team is NOT off a SU/ATS loss. Two of the four teams fall into that tightener: San Antonio and Minnesota.
Good luck, as always...
Al McMordie
