NBA System of the Week

by Al McMordie

Monday, Feb 26, 2024
The NBA held its All-Star festivities last weekend, and the 30 teams returned from their extended break last Thursday.  I generally prefer to sit on the sidelines as a bettor in the first game after the All-Star Break since I like to give the teams an opportunity to shake off whatever rust might have developed in their week of rest.  But after that I'm ready to go.  And the All-Star Break can often provide us with some nice betting angles.  I'm going to use one of them here, as our NBA System of the Week.

One of the things I like to do is play on teams that get off to bad starts after the All-Star Break.  After a week of rest, all the teams are generally refreshed and energized.  And they don't want to get off on an extended losing streak.  I like playing on NBA teams in the 3rd game after the All-Star Break when they're off back-to-back SU/ATS losses, and especially if our team is not favored by 4+ points.  Over the last 34 seasons, this angle has gone 63-41-1 ATS (60.5%).  This season, we have two plays.  On Monday, February 26, the Brooklyn Nets are a play at Memphis.  And on Tuesday, February 27, the Portland Trail Blazers will be a play at home vs. Miami.  

And, though there's nothing wrong with a 63-41 record, we can improve our numbers substantially by focusing on the teams that also lost their last game going into the All-Star Break, SU/ATS.  Those teams riding 3-game (or worse) SU/ATS losing streaks have trotted out to a 28-11 ATS record in their third game after the All-Star Break.  And Both Brooklyn and Portland fall into that 28-11 ATS tightener.

Good luck, as always,
Al McMordie

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