NBA System of the Week - 06/09/26

We are three games thru the NBA Finals, and the home team has yet to win a game.  The Knicks won Games 1 + 2 in the Alamo City, and San Antonio won Game 3 in the Big Apple.

Will the homestanding Knicks bounce back in Game 4?  Or will Victor Wembanyama & Co. level the series at two games apiece?

Let's take a look at how road teams do in Game 4 when trailing 2-games-to-1. 

Overall, road teams are 63-61-4 ATS since 1990.

But when our road team lost the first two games at home, and then bounced back with a road win in Game 3, then those road teams are a solid 11-4 ATS, 73.3%.

Although there's nothing wrong with 73.3%, we can improve our system to a perfect 10-0 ATS with two additional parameters.  First, we will only play on teams with a .625 (or better) win percentage.  And, second, we won't lay more than 4 points. 

So, our NBA System of the Week is to Play on any .625 (or better) team on the road in Game 4, if it trails 2-games-to-1, and is off a SU win, and not favored by more than 4 points.  This system applies to the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday.

Good luck, as always,
Al McMordie