by Al McMordie
Tuesday, Jan 27, 2026One of the things I like to do when handicapping pro basketball is focus on the defending NBA champion. Over the course of the season there will be plays that emanate from how that team performs. Sometimes, it might be playing with revenge against an opponent, and I might be interested in playing on the defending champ. Other times, it might be off an upset loss, which could also trigger a play on the defending champ. But those upset defeats could also trigger a play against the team which pulled the upset. Let's take a closer look at that scenario.
This past Sunday, the Toronto Raptors were an 11-point road underdog at Oklahoma City, and the Raptors upset the defending champs, 103-101. Toronto will next be at home tomorrow night vs. the New York Knicks, and that will be a critical game for both teams, as the Raptors, Knicks and Celtics are locked in a tight battle for the #2, #3 and #4 Eastern Conference spots. Indeed, just two games separate the three teams in both the win column and the loss column.
I look for the Raptors to have a possible letdown off that huge upset win over the defending champion Thunder. Since 1990, home teams have gone just 20-41-2 ATS following an upset win as a 9-point (or greater) underdog over the defending champs. Even better: if our upsetter owned a win percentage greater than .572, then our 20-41-2 stat devolves to 0-11 ATS! With the Raptors' win percentage sitting at .604, that additional criterion is satisfied.
Consider a play on the New York Knicks on Wednesday.
Good luck, as always...
Al McMordie
This past Sunday, the Toronto Raptors were an 11-point road underdog at Oklahoma City, and the Raptors upset the defending champs, 103-101. Toronto will next be at home tomorrow night vs. the New York Knicks, and that will be a critical game for both teams, as the Raptors, Knicks and Celtics are locked in a tight battle for the #2, #3 and #4 Eastern Conference spots. Indeed, just two games separate the three teams in both the win column and the loss column.
I look for the Raptors to have a possible letdown off that huge upset win over the defending champion Thunder. Since 1990, home teams have gone just 20-41-2 ATS following an upset win as a 9-point (or greater) underdog over the defending champs. Even better: if our upsetter owned a win percentage greater than .572, then our 20-41-2 stat devolves to 0-11 ATS! With the Raptors' win percentage sitting at .604, that additional criterion is satisfied.
Consider a play on the New York Knicks on Wednesday.
Good luck, as always...
Al McMordie
