NBA System of the Week

by Al McMordie

Sunday, Jan 28, 2024
Scoring is way up in the NBA compared to past seasons.  Indiana leads the league with a 124.9 scoring average, with MIlwaukee close behind at 124.5. Likewise, there are more blowouts than usual, as the NBA is on pace to set a record for games with 30-point (or greater) margins of victory (the current record is 79).

One of the things I like to do as a handicapper is fade certain teams off high-scoring wins.  Let's take a look at an NBA system which does just that.

What we want to do is play against any NBA road team which is coming off a blowout win by more than 15 points, if it scored at least 135 in that victory, and was not getting 10+ points in its current game.

These teams have combined to go 91-125-3 ATS since 1990 (42.1%).

Tomorrow night, we have a play from this angle, as the Milwaukee Bucks will be in Denver to play the Nuggets.  And the Bucks won their previous game at home, 141-117, vs. the New Orleans Pelicans, on Saturday.

And although there's nothing wrong with a 58% ATS system, we will have even more ammunition to play on the Nuggets on Monday.  Consider that the Bucks are a brutal 1-22 ATS their last 23 as underdogs of more than 1 points, when they've owned a W/L percentage of .650 (or higher).  

Look for Nikola Jokic & Co. to take care of business on Monday.

Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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