NBA: Phoenix Suns VS New Orleans Pelicans Pick and Predictions 12/11/2022

Game: 3:40 PM ET,  Sunday, December 11th, 2022

Venue: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana

TV:  NBA League Pass

Suns: 16-10, 3rd place Western Conference

Pelicans: 17-8 1st place Western Conference

BetMGM:  Point Spread: Pelicans -3.5, O/U 227.5

PointsBet: Point Spread: Pelicans -3, O/U 227.5

Fanduel: Point Spread: Pelicans -3, O/U 227.5

Suns: PF Torrey Craig, SF Mikal Bridges, C Deandre Ayton, SG Devin Booker, PG Chris Paul

Pelicans: PF Zion Williamson, SF Trey Murphy III, C Jonas Valanciunas, SG CJ McCollum, PG Dyson Daniels

A Western Conference battle of Great teams that expect to be in the postseason no matter how early it is in the season.  It is also an immediate “do-over”... These two teams played each other last on Friday night.  They had a day of relaxation in New Orleans and will do it all over again on Sunday afternoon.  The Phoenix Suns are a great team for sure… and they recently got PG Chris Paul, the ultimate floor general, back from injury… but they took a hard “L” from the Pelicans because no one on the Suns roster can stop PF Zion Williamson and his incredible offensive efficiency (more on that soon). The Suns have some work arounds available to them in Sunday's game… but that would require a MUCH bigger and MUCH more efficient shootiing game from star SG Devin Booker.  The Pelicans on the other hand have used the last couple of weeks with Zion to ascend to 1st place in the West… given health, they will be a near impossible team to beat for most teams in the league. When Zion starts smacking your PF and Center… he keeps doing it… and you have no answer for it.  Zion is that good.  Let me repeat, Zion is that good!  So, the key to this Great Betting Opportunity is actually in figuroing out how healthy the Pelicans roster will be…. Given health they are a matchup nightmare for everyone else… and very cutely they own the Los Angeles Lakers (13th place Western Conference) pick in the coming NBA draft… they could end up adding either Victor Wembenyama or Scoot Jackson to the fold… after that?... A dynasty is only logical.

The Phoenix Suns are on a 3-game losing streak… All three losses share one thing in common.. The other team has a Best Player… That is better than anyone on the Suns roster…. Luka Doncic for the Mavericks, Jayson Tatum for the Celtics, and Zion Williamson for the Pelicans.  The Suns roster is loaded and deep but it lacks a stand up every night MVP candidate… which the other high- class teams surely have.  In the 128-117 loss to the New Orleans Pelicans… Suns C Deandre Ayton had 25 points, 14 rebounds, and 4 assists on 11-15 shooting… but Deandre also posted -11 on the +/- scale because he could not stop “you know who”... PG Chris Paul had 24 points, 8 rebounds, and 7 assists… a wonderful performance that also came with tough defense like he usually does…. Except the Suns got little help from the poor shooting night of SG Devin Booker…. 5 for 17 from the field with 14 points and a massive -18 on the +/- scale.  Suns forwards Mikal Bridges and Torrey Craig had their exasperated hands full with a Pelicans star who would not be denied.

The New Orleans Pelicans are on a 6-game winning streak.. Landing them directly in 1st place… another win would create a comfortable separation from the Suns for both the Pelicans and the #2 Grizzlies.  In the big win the Pelicans got 35 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assist… and a massive +30 on the +/- scale from PF Zion Williamson.  And he did it all in 36 minutes of play.  Zion shot 13 of 17 from the floor and 9 of 12 from the free throw line… and then with the game out of hand he took a seat to preserve health.  The efficiency of Zion is shocking… game after game he is unstoppable on the block.  Other teams can not muscle him… other teams can not out-quick him… other teams can not hit at his rate… backup PG Jose Alvardo had 20 points in 25 minutes… SG CJ McCollum had 18 points… Zion’s backup PF Larry Nance Jr had 17 points in 24 minutes as he feasted on the Sun’s bench players.  The Pelicans did all this with SF Brandon Ingram ( the team’s star player when Zion misses time) on the injury list.  When they get him back… This is a true top to bottom merciless team.

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PHO: 16-10, 14-12 ATS, 12-14 O/U, 4-7 on the road.

NOP: 17-8, 14-11, 13-12 O/U, 11-3 in home games.

The Suns are 7th in scoring with 115.8 points per game, 15th in rebounds with 43.2 per game, 1st in AST/TO ratio with 2.0, and 8th in blocked shots with 5.4 per game.

The Pelicans are 5th in scoring with 117.2 points per game, 7th in rebounds with 45.3 per game, 3rd in AST/TO ratio with 1.8 per game, and 20th in blocked shots with 4.5 per game.

Our prediction for Sunday, December 11th is…. Pelicans 121 - Suns 111

Bet on the Pelicans.  It feels like the Suns will get a better game from SG Devin Booker only to watch the inevitable regression from C Deandre Ayton.  Plus the Pelicans are due for a bigger game from SG CJ McCollum who will be getting a second look at the Suns defense.  Bet on the Pelicans they will cover the spread again.  

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(will update)

Suns: C Deandre Ayton.  Deandre is a fantastic Center.  His contract problems with the Suns last year ultimately ended with a big Max Extension.  There are still hard feelings… he should squash those. At some point with Deandre we will need to see dominance in the paint that starts with defense… He currently does not have the impact of Embiid, Jokic, or Anthony Davis… but he needs to focus enough to get into that conversation.  If he keeps having these up and down results… he will end up at the top of the trading block.  A big game is needed and he will need to follow that with lots more big games.

Pelicans: SG CJ McCollum.  CJ became the missing piece for this team last season during their improbable playoff run… he will need to get back to that level.  CJ’s numbers are down this season and he is the single most important piece to maximizing the combo of Ingram and Williamson.  CJ is ultimately great for this team because of leadership… but we will need more 25+ point games to make it all come together.

 

Suns: Monty “all class” Williams

Pelicans: Willie “I’m driving a Ferrari and I’m worth it!” Green