by Vegas Writer
Thursday, Oct 15, 2026The NBA’s MVP race presents an intriguing preseason betting question: Should you back the ascending superstar with the highest ceiling, or take a better price on the player who already owns the award?
Victor Wembanyama heads DraftKings’ board at +210, followed by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at +350, Nikola Jokic at +500 and Luka Doncic at +550. That pricing makes Wembanyama the player to beat, but it also raises the question of whether the gap between the favorite and defending winner is justified.
My approach starts with production, efficiency and team success. Availability matters, too, because an outstanding statistical season cannot carry an MVP ticket if its candidate fails to qualify for consideration.
There is also a distinction between finding the most likely winner and identifying an attractive longshot. Wembanyama deserves his billing, Jalen Brunson offers an intriguing payout, and Gilgeous-Alexander remains my choice to finish first when the ballots are counted.
*DraftKings odds below are as of Oct. 12 and are subject to change.*
FAVORITE: VICTOR WEMBANYAMA, SAN ANTONIO SPURS (+210)
Wembanyama’s appeal begins with something few MVP candidates can offer: the ability to dominate a game without needing the offense to run through him on every possession.
Last season, he averaged 25.0 points and 11.5 rebounds. Those numbers establish his offensive credentials, but his defensive impact sets him apart.
The NBA’s first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year led the league in blocks for a third consecutive season. San Antonio allowed 10.1 fewer points per 100 possessions with Wembanyama on the floor than off it, illustrating how dramatically he changes opponents’ options.
Drivers hesitate. Passing windows shrink. Possessions that ordinarily produce comfortable shots become rushed decisions.
That gives him several ways to build an MVP case. He can improve his scoring, become a more reliable offensive decision-maker and continue anchoring an elite defense. He does not need to chase the scoring title to be the league’s most influential player.
The concern is price. At +210, his ticket carries a break-even probability of approximately 32.3%, before accounting for the sportsbook’s margin. That demands confidence in both his availability and continued development.
I understand making him the favorite. However, the market already prices in another substantial leap. His ceiling is extraordinary; the wager leaves limited room for setbacks.
LONGSHOT: JALEN BRUNSON, NEW YORK KNICKS (+5000)
Brunson is my longshot because his path to the award is easier to explain than his odds suggest.
At +5000, DraftKings prices him at an implied probability of approximately 2%. He averaged 26.0 points and 6.8 assists across 74 games last season, giving him an established foundation of scoring, playmaking and availability.
His championship performance adds credibility. Brunson scored 45 points in the Knicks’ title-clinching win over San Antonio, showing his offense can withstand the most demanding defensive attention.
That postseason achievement will not count toward this season’s MVP voting. It does, however, strengthen the argument that he can become the defining player on a team capable of winning consistently.
The scenario I need is straightforward: New York challenges for the Eastern Conference’s best record, Brunson pushes his scoring closer to 30 points per game, and his playmaking remains central to the offense.
His ability to create shots late in possessions gives him a dependable route to production when opponents disrupt the initial action.
The obstacles are substantial. He lacks Wembanyama’s defensive impact and faces competitors with stronger statistical ceilings.
Still, a longshot needs a plausible path to victory. Brunson has one, and +5000 compensates bettors for the odds of several things breaking his way.
PREDICTION: SHAI GILGEOUS-ALEXANDER, OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (+350)
My prediction is Gilgeous-Alexander because his recent performance already satisfies the hardest parts of an MVP argument.
He averaged 31.1 points on 55.3% shooting last season, becoming the first guard in NBA history to average at least 30 points while making at least 55% of his field-goal attempts. He also won Clutch Player of the Year after leading the league with 175 clutch points.
That combination matters. He delivers elite scoring without requiring inefficient volume, then remains capable of deciding the close games that shape a team’s record.
Oklahoma City finished 64-18, establishing the team-success component of his candidacy.
His offensive approach is repeatable: penetrate, control the defender with changes of pace, reach comfortable shooting spots and punish overcommitted help. Those skills should keep his production dependable throughout the regular season.
Winning a third consecutive MVP will require another exceptional campaign. Voters could gravitate toward Wembanyama if the race is close, particularly if San Antonio finishes ahead of Oklahoma City.
But anticipated voter fatigue isn't enough to discount the defending winner’s efficiency and consistency.
At +350, Gilgeous-Alexander offers a better payout than Wembanyama while bringing an established winning formula. I expect another outstanding season to produce his third straight MVP award.
Victor Wembanyama heads DraftKings’ board at +210, followed by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at +350, Nikola Jokic at +500 and Luka Doncic at +550. That pricing makes Wembanyama the player to beat, but it also raises the question of whether the gap between the favorite and defending winner is justified.
My approach starts with production, efficiency and team success. Availability matters, too, because an outstanding statistical season cannot carry an MVP ticket if its candidate fails to qualify for consideration.
There is also a distinction between finding the most likely winner and identifying an attractive longshot. Wembanyama deserves his billing, Jalen Brunson offers an intriguing payout, and Gilgeous-Alexander remains my choice to finish first when the ballots are counted.
*DraftKings odds below are as of Oct. 12 and are subject to change.*
FAVORITE: VICTOR WEMBANYAMA, SAN ANTONIO SPURS (+210)
Wembanyama’s appeal begins with something few MVP candidates can offer: the ability to dominate a game without needing the offense to run through him on every possession.
Last season, he averaged 25.0 points and 11.5 rebounds. Those numbers establish his offensive credentials, but his defensive impact sets him apart.
The NBA’s first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year led the league in blocks for a third consecutive season. San Antonio allowed 10.1 fewer points per 100 possessions with Wembanyama on the floor than off it, illustrating how dramatically he changes opponents’ options.
Drivers hesitate. Passing windows shrink. Possessions that ordinarily produce comfortable shots become rushed decisions.
That gives him several ways to build an MVP case. He can improve his scoring, become a more reliable offensive decision-maker and continue anchoring an elite defense. He does not need to chase the scoring title to be the league’s most influential player.
The concern is price. At +210, his ticket carries a break-even probability of approximately 32.3%, before accounting for the sportsbook’s margin. That demands confidence in both his availability and continued development.
I understand making him the favorite. However, the market already prices in another substantial leap. His ceiling is extraordinary; the wager leaves limited room for setbacks.
LONGSHOT: JALEN BRUNSON, NEW YORK KNICKS (+5000)
Brunson is my longshot because his path to the award is easier to explain than his odds suggest.
At +5000, DraftKings prices him at an implied probability of approximately 2%. He averaged 26.0 points and 6.8 assists across 74 games last season, giving him an established foundation of scoring, playmaking and availability.
His championship performance adds credibility. Brunson scored 45 points in the Knicks’ title-clinching win over San Antonio, showing his offense can withstand the most demanding defensive attention.
That postseason achievement will not count toward this season’s MVP voting. It does, however, strengthen the argument that he can become the defining player on a team capable of winning consistently.
The scenario I need is straightforward: New York challenges for the Eastern Conference’s best record, Brunson pushes his scoring closer to 30 points per game, and his playmaking remains central to the offense.
His ability to create shots late in possessions gives him a dependable route to production when opponents disrupt the initial action.
The obstacles are substantial. He lacks Wembanyama’s defensive impact and faces competitors with stronger statistical ceilings.
Still, a longshot needs a plausible path to victory. Brunson has one, and +5000 compensates bettors for the odds of several things breaking his way.
PREDICTION: SHAI GILGEOUS-ALEXANDER, OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (+350)
My prediction is Gilgeous-Alexander because his recent performance already satisfies the hardest parts of an MVP argument.
He averaged 31.1 points on 55.3% shooting last season, becoming the first guard in NBA history to average at least 30 points while making at least 55% of his field-goal attempts. He also won Clutch Player of the Year after leading the league with 175 clutch points.
That combination matters. He delivers elite scoring without requiring inefficient volume, then remains capable of deciding the close games that shape a team’s record.
Oklahoma City finished 64-18, establishing the team-success component of his candidacy.
His offensive approach is repeatable: penetrate, control the defender with changes of pace, reach comfortable shooting spots and punish overcommitted help. Those skills should keep his production dependable throughout the regular season.
Winning a third consecutive MVP will require another exceptional campaign. Voters could gravitate toward Wembanyama if the race is close, particularly if San Antonio finishes ahead of Oklahoma City.
But anticipated voter fatigue isn't enough to discount the defending winner’s efficiency and consistency.
At +350, Gilgeous-Alexander offers a better payout than Wembanyama while bringing an established winning formula. I expect another outstanding season to produce his third straight MVP award.
