NBA: Miami Heat vs Sacramento Kings Pick and Predictions 10/29/2022

Game: 6:10 PM ET, Saturday, October 29th

Venue:  Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California

Where to Watch: NBA League Pass

Heat: 2-4, 10th place Eastern Conference

Kings: 0-4, 14th place Western Conference

DraftKings:  Point Spread: Heat -3.5, O/U NA

PointsBet: Point Spread: Heat -3.5, O/U 226

Fanduel: Point Spread: Heat -3.5, O/U 227.5

Heat: PG Kyle Lowry, SG Tyler Herro, SF Caleb Martin, PF Jimmy Butler, C Bam Adebayo

Kings: Pg De’Aaron Fox, SG Kevin Huerter, SF Harrison Barnes, PF Keegan Murray, C Domantas Sabonis

An NBA inter-conference matchup between an Eastern Conference power that is doing badly and a Western Conference doormat that is finding a new low.  The Miami Heat are doing badly.  At 4-2 they aren’t off to the start that a perennial playoff team should be.. In fact they aren’t even playing their best players at their best positions.  SF Jimmy Butler should be the small forward… if you can’t find a Power Forward… Jimmy should not be your fill-in.  C Bam Adebayo is better at Power Forward NEXT to a big man… if you can’t find a big man… Bam should not be your fill -in. When you have great NBA players it is a good idea to play them at their best position and fill in the roster otherwise.  The Sacramento Kings REALLY want 7’4 French teenager Victor Wembanyama.  It is clear in everything they do.  It is also clear that in 20 seasons of being horrible they have never gotten the draft right or the lucky ping pong ball!  The Kings do not have the right to play the “tanking” game.  The Kings two best players are PF/C Domantas Sabonis who is not a defensive juggernaut… and PG De’Aaron Fox who is not a shooter.  The result is garbage play from the rest of the garbage roster…. And diminishing results regardless of a stuffed stat box from the stars. The Kings need the #1 pick more than any other team that has ever existed… because without a transformative player… What in the hell could you do with the Kings?

The Miami Heat are a piss poor 2-4.  They have beaten the Portland Trail Blazers and the Toronto Raptors.. But they have lost to the Raptors, the Celtics, the Bulls, and the Warriors.  The long and short of the problem is the Heat have no offense.  They hardly score and they hardly rebound. A losing combination.  Lots of teams win without great scoring because the defense is sooo good.  This is not that defensive team.  The biggest part of their problem is they hung on to C Bam Adebayo until the league no longer wanted to trade for him. They also paid SG/SF Duncan Robinson big money to find out he is better off the court than on the court.  His shooting is fine.. But when he goes cold he will give up lots more points than he is worth. And finally the reason you do not trade for PG Kyle Lowry is because he is old… 5.3 assists per game with only 10 points… is a number Kyle would have laughed at from other point guards over most of his career.  That is what he gets now.  The saving grace for this team is… that there are plenty of teams looking to make trades to facilitate tanking!  The Heat plus Myles Turner and Buddy Hield would fix THREE problems. A big man, A sixth man shooter, and depth.  The Heat could offer up Duncan Robinson and Victor Oladipo and a pick!  It would work.  Will they?

The Sacramento Kings last season pulled off a trade for PF Domantas Sabonis… a stat stuffer and overall offensive stud. They then moved that Power Forward to Center and stole a lot of his scoring potential.  This season PG De’Aaron Fox is averaging 30.5 points per game! That is great! But Domantas Sabonis at Center leads the team in assist with 6.2 per game… It makes no sense for a top-flight point guard to not lead the team in assists unless that guy is not such a good point guard.  The Kings also made an odd stab at getting better shooters by adding SG Kevin BNuerter form the Hawks… but again Kevin is a swinging door on defense.  The penultimate is of course SF Harrison Barnes.  If you remember his name it is because a lifetime ago he played on the Warriors during Steph, Klay, and Draymond’s first championship.. The Mavericks scooped Harrison away and since he has been the 3rd or 4th best player on many successive losing teams.  Good thing they pay Harrison a lot!

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Our prediction for Saturday, October 29th is…. Heat 114 - Kings 105

Bet on the Heat.  The Kings are not going to suddenly turn around their awful start on a night when Harrison Barnes has to guard Jimmy Butler!  

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Miami is 15-9 ATS versus Sacramento at Sacramento since 1996.

Miami is 49-38 ATS in road games the last 3 seasons.

Heat: C Bam Adebayo, SF Jimmy Butler is the Heat’s heart and soul… but Bam is the true metric for success.  Bam uses athleticism to overcome being slightly undersized at the Center position… When Bam has monster games.. The Heat have monster games… when Bam gets pushed around the Heat struggle to win.

Kings: C Domantas Sabonis.  Domantas is not a defensive stud by any means… but in simple points and rebounds he has been underrated for his entire career.  His job this season is simple.. Go for personal glory and ignore the unbalanced roster.

Heat: Erik “done everything” Spoelstra

Kings: Mike “The Kings hire soooo many Lakers cast-offs” Brown