NBA: Miami Heat VS Los Angeles Clippers Pick and Predictions 01/02/2023

Game: 10:30 PM ET,  Monday, January 2nd, 2023

Venue: Crypto.com Arena

TV:  NBA League Pass

Heat: 19-18, 7th place Eastern Conference

Clippers: 21-17, 5th place Western Conference

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Clippers -2.5, O/U 219.5

PointsBet: Point Spread: Clippers -2.5, O/U 219

Fanduel: Point Spread: Clippers -3, O/U 219

Heat: PF Haywood Highsmith, SF Max Strus, C Bam Adebayo, PG Kyle Lowry, SG Tyler Herro

Clippers: SF Kawhi Leonard, PF Marcus Morris SR, C Ivica Zubac, PG Reggie Jackson, SG Paul George

An East VS West battle of teams with high expectations and poor results so far.  The Miami Heat have been bitten by the injury bug.  SF Jimmy Butler is occasionally being held out of games with “knee injury management”.  Jimmy is not listed on the Heat injury report, but he did miss their last game and will likely miss more… we just don’t know when.  They also have injury problems to C Dwayne Dedmon who will miss the season, SF Duncan Robinson who is listed as questionable, SG Babe Vincent who is questionable, and Sf Caleb Martin who is questionable.  That has led to Heat to start an odd combo of back-ups and guys out of position.  The Heat still have a few capable starters in Tyler Herro, and Bam Adebayo… but man oh man they have no depth at the moment.  The Los Angeles Clippers used to be the team that was playing the injury list blues… but as of press time they are as healthy as any team could ever expect to be… just one player, SG/SF Nicholas Batum, is listed as Questionable.  For the Clippers this is exactly what they have been waiting a few seasons for… SF Kawhi Loenard, SG Paul George, and 6th man Norman Powell are all available at the same time!!  They also now have a ton of battle tested depth… from guys who have spent long stretches as starters while the stars were injured.  The Great Betting Opportunity here is in the insanely small point spread.  Let me tell you how to bet on this one.

The Miami Heat have won 3 of their last 4 games.  They also have gone 3-1 ATS during that stretch.  They won their last game 126-123 against a good Utah Jazz team. In that game C Bam Adebayo had 32 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists… SG Tyler Herro added 29 points, 9 rebounds, and 6 assists.  Long forgotten former NBA star SG Victor Oladipo had 23 points off the bench.  It was enough to get over the top.  If SF Jimmy Butler plays in this coming game… This is a very strong team that should not be easily overlooked or dismissed.

The Los Angeles Clippers have won 6 of their last 10 games, but are on a 2-game losing streak.  Both games were at home and both games were against good teams… Boston and Indiana. I know we have trouble thinking of Indiana as a good team… but their young guards are as solid as any guard group in the league.  The Clippers lost to Indiana 131-130… a razor’s edge.  In that game SG Paul George had 45 points and SF Kawhi Leonard had 24 points.  The problem of course comes when those two dominate the ball so much we get a jump shot happy offense… instead of the grind it out style that wins for the Clippers.  19 missed shots from 2 players has a way of giving life to the other side.  Norman Powell shot the ball at a better percentage than the two Starting stars but came away with only 9 points… They have to share the ball more.

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MIA: 19-18, 13-22-2 ATS, 19-18 O/U, 8-10 on the road.

LAC 21-17, 20-18-0, 16-22 O/U, 11-7 in home games.

The Heat are 30th in scoring with 109 points per game, 28th in rebounds with 40.5 per game, 10th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8, and 30th in blocked shots with 3.1 per game.

The Clippers are 28th in scoring with 109.7 points per game, 9th in rebounds with 44.2 per game, 28th in AST/TO ratio with 1.5, and 17th in blocked shots with 4.8 per game.

Our prediction for Monday, January 2nd is…. Clippers 128 - Heat 101

Blow out alert.  Bet on the Clippers to cover the spread.  Depth and at home… The Clippers will find little resistance from the thin Heat. A big problem the Heat will have against the Clippers is the poor defense of SG Tyler Herro against Paul George AND the undersized defense of SF Max Strus against SF Kawhi Leonard.

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The Clippers are 3-1 ATS versus Miami the last 3 seasons.

The Clippers are 28-19 ATS versus Miami since 1996.

Miami is 3-12 ARS when the total is 210-219.5 this season.

Heat: C Bam Adebayo.  Bam has long been thought of as the player on the trading block.  He is a capable 2-way player.  He leads the Heat in rebounds and Blocks… but is a little undersized and his offense fluctuates between dominant and invisible.  If he can generate scoring (he is doing well so far) while Jimmy Butler misses games… Bam may be the one kept while Jimmy is shipped out.

Clippers:  SG Paul George.  45 points in his last game… AND now he gets to blow past Tyler Herro or Victor Oladipo… both of whom are Kleenex soft on defense.  This could be Paul’s biggest game in LA.

Heat: Erik “count my rings” Spoelstra

Clippers: Tye “LeBron vouches for me” Lue