NBA Late Regular Season: To Bet or Not to Bet?

The NBA regular season is nearly over. Just two more weeks remain on the schedule.

Most bettors choose to either pass on these games, or they bet fewer games for lesser amounts. Conventional wisdom goes — that with many teams having already clinched playoff spots and many other teams now completely out of playoff contention with nothing to play for, it’s sometimes difficult to determine exactly which teams will show up on any given night.

But clinching  playoff spot does not end the regular season for them. Now they concentrate on seeding. That’s where a large portion of bets are won. So pay attention to that as it makes a huge difference on who you play in the first round. 

 

We have witnessed a new style of NBA play. (More like shenanigans) There are teams that have been losing on purpose. But remember, those low-life teams were getting points as tremendous underdogs and underdogs can be profitable. Playoff teams may bench the starters earlier than normal and the dog backdoors the money tree. 

Add in the fatigue of a long season (coming after a shortened off-season), and that makes NBA betting, already a precarious endeavor, even less predictable for the favorites that have secured their playoff spot. 

Yet, as my data will show, that opinion is wrong.  Fact is, late-season NBA betting can be one of the most lucrative times of year to bet basketball.

 Focus on Games that Matter

Bettors should focus on games that matter. More specifically, bettors are advised to focus on games that matter most, and look to bet on teams that desperately need to win in order to lock up a playoff spot.

A long-held contrarian approach to sports betting is to wager against teams desperately needing to win.  This seems almost counterintuitive.  We know the public is well aware of which teams are desperate late in the season and must win in order to make the playoffs.

The trouble is, the betting public tends to overvalue these teams. Contrarians would point out — if these marginal teams have to win so badly so late in the season, they must not really be that good.  This contrarian approach works very well in football — both college and pro. Fading public opinion can be wise, and profitable.

Aside from the regular season wariness and anticipation for the playoffs which are pending, the final two weeks of the NBA must compete against baseball and hockey, which are also daily sports. That’s a crowded sports gambling menu this time of year.  No wonder so few gamblers have caught on to the unique opportunities which exist of late-season NBA betting.

And then the playoffs afterwards where they play best-of-7-game series which provides great data, information and analytics.