NBA "Last Home Game" System of the Week

by Al McMordie

Sunday, Apr 14, 2024
Today is the final day of what has been an exciting NBA season.  Although we know which 20 teams are still left in contention, we don't yet know which teams will be in the Play-In games, nor which team will earn the #1 seed in the Western Conference.  I love handicapping the final days of the regular season because there are generally some very good situations that pop up.  And many of those involve taking teams in their final home game of the season. 

For our NBA System of the Week, we're going to look at certain teams playing their final home game of the season.  What we want to do is play on any revenge-minded team, if it was favored by more than 5 points, and was playing its final home game.  Dating back to 1990, our trusty system has gone 95-58-6 (62.0% ATS), including 1-1 ATS earlier this week, with a win on the Denver Nuggets -7.5 over Minnesota, and a loss on the Phoenix Suns -9.5 over the LA Clippers.

Today, we have three plays out of this angle (and possibly a fourth).  The three certain plays are all double-digit favorites:  Philadelphia over Brooklyn, Cleveland over Charlotte, and Sacramento over Portland.  And, then, one play is possible, depending on the closing number.  Orlando is currently favored by 4.5 points over Milwaukee.  So, if it moves a point higher, it would qualify.  Each of our home teams plays with revenge from a road defeat, so look for some 'home cooking' in their final home game of the season.

[Editor's Note:  Orlando did close at -5.5, and qualified as a play.]

Good luck, as always....
Al McMordie

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