NBA: Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat Pick and Predictions 11/01/2022

Game: 7:40 PM ET, Tuesday, November 1st

Venue:  FTX Arena, Miami, Florida

Where to Watch: NBA League Pass

Warriors: 3-4, 11th place Western Conference

Heat: 2-5, 12th place Eastern Conference

DraftKings:  Point Spread: pick em'; O/U 227

PointsBet: Point Spread: Warriors -1; O/U 227

Fanduel: Point Spread: Warriors -.05; O/U 226

Warriors: PG Stephen Curry, SG Jordan Poole, SF Andrew Wiggins, PF Draymond Green, C Kevon Looney

Heat: PG Kyle Lowry, SG Tyler Herro, SF Caleb Martin, PF Jimmy Butler, C Bam Adebayo

An inter-conference matchup between two teams who are missing the mark on their expectations.  It has been a Topsy Turvy start to the 2022-23 NBA season.  The good teams from last season are going through a variety of growing pains (or aging pains) (especially in the Eastern Conference… where the Knicks are better than the 76ers, Bulls, Heat, and Nets)... And some of the teams we thought were going to tank for the big rush to get the best draft pick… are winning, like the Utah Jazz, the Portland Trail Blazers, and the San Antonio Spurs!  I know it’s a long season… but why have the Utah Jazz allowed the Los Angeles Lakers to take a 5 loss lead in the draft lottery when the Lakers don’t even get their own pick?!  The short answer is that a lot of these early numbers will turn in a different direction.  The long answer is some Vets are worth as many wins as we thought they were by themselves.  When it comes to the Warriors and Heat we are usually talking about who will be left standing when the Finals come around… Right now?... We are talking about who will win another game to put themselves in position for the play-in game if the season suddenly ended today?

The Golden State Warriors have an identity crisis… too much depth… too much skill…. too much history… too much pride.  The perennial all-stars SG Klay Thompson and PF Draymond Green are no longer the key parts of the Big Three in Golden State!  It is really that simple… those two great players, who will be in the Hall of Fame one day need to start playing like role players and give themselves over to the better young guys on the roster.  They need to give up the ghost and become TEAM and only TEAM goal oriented.  It’s not about keeping pace with Pg Steph Curry… It’s about- and has to be about- Winning and winning alone. In their last game the Golden State Warriors lost to the Detroit Pistons 128-114… in the game before the warriors lost to the Charlotte Hornets… Neither of those losses are acceptable.  Neither of those teams should be able to hang with the Warriors depth even if the Warriors have a few guys out with injury… but they did and they did big. Considering how wealthy Klay and Draymond are, the most important thing for making more money the rest of their lives is NOT how much money they make on the next contract… and is how many rings they have when the dust settles on their careers.  The best career moves for both Klay and Draymond would be to go to the front office and sign cheap extensions that lower their yearly pay… which would lower the Warriors salary cap tax by millions upon millions upon millions… which would open the team for future re-signing of their young guys..  And for that big swing trade of the young guys for a current all-star or two.

The Miami Heat are struggling at the moment… They are struggling so bad that they lost their last game to the Sacramento KINGS!  That is not a good look for a team that competed in the conference Finals last season and made no major moves over the offseason. A big problem with this team is surefire lack of depth.  Udonis Haslem doesn’t and shouldn’t play… the guy is older than dirt… and really there to be an extra coaching voice in the locker room.  SG/SF Duncan Robinbson is a good shooter (or he was?)... but not worth having on the floor because his defense is so soft… Neither guy should be taking a valuable spot on the bench.  The problem of course is that Duncan Robinson got a big contract from the Heat because of his shooting.  C Dwayne Dedmon, C Omer Yurtseven, and SG Victor Oladipo are all on the injury list… they haven’t been impact players ever.  The obvious trade should be all those guys and Duncan plus some picks for… ANYBODY that can play from a team looking for draft picks.  This team needs new blood… they need younger blood… and any transfusion would be better than no transfusion. At the moment they have to keep putting the pressure on SF Jimmy Butler and his 21.3 points a game… and that is simply unfair considering Butler is also the team’s best defensive player.  

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GS: 3-4, 2-5 ATS, 6-0-1 O/U, 0-3 on the road.

MIA: 2-5, 1-6 ATS, 4-3 O/U, 1-3 in home games.

The Warriors are 3rd in the league in scoring with 118.7 points per game, 23rd in rebounds with 43 per game, 13th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8, ands 23rd in blocks with 4.4

The Heat are 26th in the league in scoring with 108 per game, 27th in rebounds with 40.4 per game, 17th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8, and 30th in blocks with 2.9 per game.

Our prediction for Tuesday, November 1st is….  Warriors 118 - Heat 108

The Warriors simply score too much for the heat who are struggling to stop teams from getting over.  The bet is for the Warriors… which is odd to think that a team that lost to the Pistons would have better luck against the Heat… but that is exactly what the numbers say will happen.

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(will update)

Warriors:  PG Steph Curry.  The best shooter of all time is averaging 31 points a game.  He only has to hit his average to put the game out of reach for the offensively weak Heat.

Heat: C Bam Adebayo.  The Heat have failed to address that Bam is simply not enough in the paint.  The Heat are far behind the rest of the league in blocked shots because Bam is simply undersized and overworked.  Bam is a star, but I’m not sure he works as a top Center anywhere in the league.b  His athleticism makes him look wonderfully suited…. But his stats on offense AND in blocked shots say he is no Robert Williams III.

Warriors: Steve “all the rings” Kerr

Heat: Erik “got his share too” Spoelstra