NBA: Denver Nuggets VS Minnesota Timberwolves Pick and Predictions 02/05/2023

Game: 7:10 PM ET,  Sunday, February 5th, 2023

Venue:  Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota

TV: NBA League Pass

Nuggets: 37-16, 1st place Western Conference

Timberwolves: 28-27, 8th place Western Conference

BetMGM:  Point Spread: T-Wolves -3.5, O/U 231

PointsBet: Point Spread: T-Wolves -3.5, O/U 231

Fanduel: Point Spread: T-Wolves -3.5, O/U 231.5

Nuggets: PG Jamal Murray, SG Bones Hyland, SF Michael Porter JR, PF Aaron Gordon, C Nikola Jokic

Timberwolves: PG D’Angelo Russell, SG Anthony Edwards, SF Jaden McDaniels, PF Kyle Anderson, C Rudy Gobert

A Western Conference matchup with a bizarre points spread.  The visiting team happens to be the Denver Nuggets who are the #1 team in the Western Conference and seemingly growing their lead with every new game.  They also have the league’s best player in Center Nikola Jokic.. Who has been suffering hamstring tightness but has played the last 4 games straight and will play in this one.  BTW the Joker’s stats are still eye-popping when adjusted for a slight minutes restriction.. And they are still coming in the form of wins!  So why in the heck are the 8th place Minnesota Timberwolves favored? Is it just that the Wolves are at home?... Is it a mistake (though double checked at Don Best and Covers to find the same -3.5 for the Wolves)... and has anyone else noticed that the T-wolves have both C Rudy Gobert and PF Kyle Anderson listed as day to day as they have recently suffered “right groin pain” and “back soreness” respectively.  Lots of people and prognosticators think the T-Wolves are better on paper then their play on the floor and it is only a matter of time before they start playing better… but they still do not have C/PF Karl Anthony Towns… AND backup PG Austin Rivers has been suspended for 3 games due to his altercation with Mo Bamba?... So why does the spread favor Minny?.... The great betting opportunity here is to simply bet the Nuggets and take the cash.  Sometimes life screams for a simplicity that we are not giving it…. This is one of those times.

The Denver Nuggets have won 7 of their last 10 games and are on a 3-game winning streak.  They went 6-4 ATS during that stretch.  They last beat the Atlanta hawks 128-108… a blowout win that easily covered the -10 spread in favor of the Nuggets.  In the win C Nikola Jokic had 14 points, 18 rebounds, and 10 assists… in a big man’s triple double that only took him 34 minutes of playing time. Joker shuffled several of those assists off to sharp-shooting PG Jamal Murray who dominated the hawks with 41 points while hitting 7 of 12 3-pointers and dropping 15 of 24 baskets overall. Pf Michael Porter JR added 23 points.. While SF Aaron Gordon continued to play lockdown defense on whoever, whenever.  The formula works.  The Nuggets are for real.

The Minnesota Timberwolves have won 6 of their last 10 games… with 60% of the season in the books they find themselves just 1 win above .500.  They lost their last game to the Orlando Magic.. A failure of epic proportions if you have ever watched the Magic play this season. The final score was 127-120.  The T-Wolves looked completely unable to play basic defensive sets.  In the loss they got 29 points from PG D’Angelo Russell, 19 points from SG Anthony Edwards and 15 points from C Rudy Gobert.  The actual Timberwolves star of the game ended up being DEEP bench player C Luka Garza who nabbed 17 points & 6 rebounds in 10 minutes of play… It’s funny cause the Wolves almost never play this kid at all!  He is averaging a whopping 6 minutes a game over just the last 10 games.  Good thing the Timberwolves have several hundred million dollars tied up to contracts for Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns!  That way this kid can simply walk to any other team that needs a big man.

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The Nuggets are 6th in scoring with 117.2 points per game and 17th in rebounds with 42.8 per game.  On defense they rank 11th in defense of scoring while holding opponents to 112.7 per game.  They do have a tendency to trade basket for basket… but when you’ve won this many games at this point in the season… That trade off is worth it.

The Timberwolves are 10th in scoring with 115.2 points per game and 26th in rebounds with 41.4 per game. On defense they are a surprising 19th in defense of scoring while holding teams to 115.2 points per game.  I say surprising because I would have thought they ranked MUCH lower after watching them their last 3 games.  They don’t switch well and they ignore opportunities to trap the ball in corners… mostly because that would take teamwork and the Wolves just don’t have it in them. The pairing of Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert could be productive if the front office gave them the proper skill sets to help… like 3 and D guys everywhere else.  If they don’t get that this team will always be Utah 2.0.. And Utah with Mitchell and Gobert didn’t get any rings that I can remember.

Our prediction for Sunday, February 5th is….  Nuggets 128 - Timberwolves 111

Bet on the Nuggets.  Do it before the line moves… bet large if you have it.  Even if Jokic were to sit out the ENTIRE game, I would still take Denver on defensive superiority alone.

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3 of 5 games in this matchup (at Minny) have gone OVER.

Minny is 6-3 ATS versus Denver the last 3 seasons.

7 of 9 games between these two overall have gone OVER.

Nuggets: C Nikola Jokic.  Nikola has suffered lately with some hamstring soreness.  Not enough however to stop getting triple doubles. His team is also responding to finally give him the support he needs.. With Jamal Murray, MPJ, and Aaron Gordon doing lots more now that they are healthy at the same time than they had in year’s past.  It is no secret this team will go exactly as far as the Joker takes them, but even the Joker needs some quality henchman.

Timberwolves: C Luka Garza.  Don’t blink or you might miss him.  Minny doesn’t play Luka… who was a sensation in college and dropped like a stone in the draft for all the typical reasons… he was too old (22) and too slow moving side to side to get much of a look in the 2021 draft.  He also bounced around the league since Detroit is the team that drafted him.  It is funny that we make these determinations on guys during the draft process that keeps them from getting quality looks on the floor.  When a kid gets 17,6,1 in just 10 minutes of playing time… Maybe give him a few more looks? He is still the same 6’10, big bodied Center that dominated college ball.

Nuggets: Michael “get to know me” Malone

Timberwolves: Chris “don’t bother” Finch