NBA: Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors Pick and Predictions 10/21/2022

Game: 10:00 PM ET, Friday, October 21st

Venue:  Chase Center, San Francisco, California

Where to Watch: ESPN
 

Nuggets: 0-1 Western Conference

Warriors: 1-0 Western Conference

DraftKings:  Point Spread: Warriors -6, O/U 229.5

Circa: Point Spread: Warriors -5.5, O/U 228

William Hill: Point Spread: Warriors -5.5, O/U 228

Nuggets: PF Michael Porter Jr, SF Aaron Gordon, C Nikola Jokic, SG Kentavious Caldwell Pope, PG Jamal Murray

Warriors: SF Andrew Wiggins, PF Draymond Green, C Kevon Looney, SG Klay Thompson, PG Stephen Curry

A wild start to the Western Conference means fun times and sad times for two of their perennial playoff teams. The Denver Nuggets opened the season with a blowout loss to a very very very deliberately bad Utah Jazz team 123 - 102.  These things happen in NBA basketball and it may mean nothing.  It also might mean that the return of PF Michael Porter Jr and SG Jamal Murray means two starting players are converted with rust and still nursing quiet pain.  It also might mean that SF Aaron Gordon is finally going to be exposed as overpaid and underproductive.  It also may mean that Nikola Jokic is toiling for a nobody NBA team and his amazing career will be lost in the sand of time without any meaningful wins. I have proposed for the last 18 months that the Nuggets offer Jokic TO THE WARRIORS… for all those good young players. Yet that won’t happen.  The Warriors on the other hand had a first game win over the Lakers coupled with a ring ceremony!  Good night for San Fran!  They also saw themselves on the court… a symphony of talent and depth… shooting and defense… hot hand after hot hand!  The real sadness is that the Nuggets will open the season with two losses. A funny occurrence during the jazz Denver game was the debut of Jazz Center Walker Kessler 12 pts, 10 rebounds 100% FG… Sometimes when you want to wait a year for a 7’4 french teenager… you get a 7’2 American teenager who spoils the party.

The Denver Nuggets lost the first game in a lazy 123-102 drubbing by the Utah Jazz… you know, the team that gave away their stars for picks?!  The Nuggets marched into Salt Lake City a full roster and promptly lost to Collin Sexton (did not play last year) and Mike Conley (oldie olderson).  As sure as that should have been disappointing to the Nuggets it was equally disappointing to the Jazz who expect to land the #1 pick in the draft.  So the Nuggets got a usual great game from Nikola Jokic 27 points.  It is conspicuously Murray and Porter Jr who simply did not show up in the stats very much… 15 points, 12 points… lots of rust… sore back… undersized.  The story has opened with a down chapter.

The Golden State Warriors were all smiles as they ran the Los Angeles Lakers off the floor and as they tried on their Championship rings. The Warriors look like a team that could repeat… and a team that could go on another dynasty run if they simply keep their amazing depth. Pg Steph Curry is great… Klay and Draymond are still effective… The bench is loaded with great young guys who can do it all!.  The one dim spot is PF Jonathan Kuminga who is supposed to challenge Draymond Green for the PF spot.  Kuminga looked a bit lost and had no effect during 13 minutes of play.  Wiseman and Poole however looked right in the pocket for the amount of floor time they got.  Wiggins made a full case for being the team’s 2nd best player behind Steph.  Wiggins got hot late and seemed unable to miss 3-pointers. New addition Donte DiVincenzo looked capable in the system except a little lost on fast break defense.  Other than that.. They have no worries yet.

 

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The Nuggets finished last season 10th in scoring with 112.7 points per game, 2nd in FG percentage with 48.3 per game, 16th in 3-point percentage with 35.3 per game, and 17th in offensive rebounds with 44.1 per game.  

The Warriors finished last season 15th in points per game with 111, 10th in FG percentage with 46.9 per game, 8th in 3-point percentage with 36.4 per game, and 7th in offensive rebounds with 45.5. It helped that they backed that offense with a top-3 defense!

Our prediction for Friday, October 21st is…. Warriors 123 - Nuggets 108

Bet on the Warriors.  Yes, Jokic could have a field day against Kevon Looney and James Wiseman… but it is a field day the Warriors would welcome since the ball will be clogged at the 5… and the Warriors will drown the Nuggets at every other position.

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Denver is 37-27-2 ATS as a road underdog off an upset loss, when playing with rest against a non-division foe
The Denver/Golden State series has gone Over the total 19-12
Golden State is 27-12-1 ATS following a win-and-cover at home

Nuggets: C Nikola Jokic, Anytime you watch the Nuggets if you are not watching Jokic… You aren’t really watching the game.  This team will go as Jokic goes.

Warriors: C Kevon Looney, Looney is a really hard working average big man… The question for the Warriors is: How long will it be before James Wiseman tackles his job?

Nuggets: Michael “none them rings” Malone

Warriors: Steve “all them rings” Kerr