NBA Basketball: Toronto Raptors VS Denver Nuggets Pick and Predictions 03/06/2023

Game: 7:40 PM ET,  Monday, March 6th, 2023

Venue: Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado

TV:  NBA League Pass

Raptors: 32-33, 9th place Eastern Conference

Nuggets: 45-19, 1st place Western Conference

BetMGM:  Point Spread: Nuggets -6.5, O/U 229.5

PointsBet: Point Spread: Nuggets -6, O/U 229

Fanduel: Point Spread:  Nuggets -6, O/U 229

Raptors: PG Fred Van Vleet, SG OG Anunoby, SF Scottie Barnes, PF Pascal Siakam, C Jakob Poeltl

Nuggets: PG Jamal Murray, SG Kentavious Caldwell Pope, SF Bruce Brown, PF Aaron Gordon, C Nikola Jokic

An odd interconference mismatch between teams with entirely different realities… but those different realities are not because one of them has a bad roster.  The Toronto Raptors have been taking it on the chin all season. On paper they have lots of great pieces, but on the court they still play with that odd imbalance of a roster with too many PFs coming off the bench and not enough trust in 2nd year player Scottie Barnes to simply make him the Point Guard.  The Raptors have a losing record but still sit at that “play-in spot”. The Denver Nuggets are centered by a man that has won 2 consecutive MVPs and is on the precipice of his 3rd… The reason… he stuffs a stat sheet and supports a roster that is always losing key guys to injury.. And still they get wins.  Every NBA GM would sign up for adding Nikola Jokic to their squad… even PHILLY. But does having Jokic make them a contender while better overall rosters are circling them at crunch time?.. The great betting opportunity here is found in the trends… and noticing that the Raptors have added Anunoby to the SG spot and stumbled into maybe their best starting line-up all year.

The Toronto Raptors have won 7 of their last 10 games.  They have turned up the fuel since adding Jakob Poeltl at the trade deadline and getting PF Pascal Siakam back to his original and best position.  They went only 4-6 ATS during that stretch as they have had too many close games against bad teams… Like not covering 2 wins against the Detroit Pistons.  In their last game they beat the Washington Wizards 116-109 in overtime for a win ATS. In that game they got 25 points &10 assists from PG Fred Van Vleet, 26 points from former starter now bench player SG Gary Trent JR… and 3 other Raptors scored in double figures.  At the trade deadline the Raptors were expected to move SF OG Anunoby because other teams wanted him.. Or maybe PG Fred Van Vleet to make way for Scottie but decided to stand pat with only minor cosmetic changes.

The Denver Nuggets have won 8 of their last 10 games as they cut a path through the league with exemplary play and professionalism… They routinely have to put up with an injury to either Aaron Gordon or Michael Porter JR or Jamal Murray… but this team has seemed to learn how to get by on simply Jokic’s charm and 1 top performance from any of those 3 players. They won their last game against the Memphis Grizzlies and following that game Grizzlies PG Ja Morant took a gun to a Denver area strip club… so they must have left a lasting impression on the butt head.  In the 113-97 win the Nuggets got 18 points, 18 rebounds, and 10 assists from C Nikola Jokic!  They also got 26 points from PF Michael Porter JR… PG Jamal Murray added 22 points & 9 assists and everything was smooth sailing.

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Our prediction for Monday, March 6th is…. Nuggets 119 - Raptors 110

Bet on the Nuggets. Jokic is controlling entire games from the C position which makes everything easier for those around him… while you should be fascinated by the strength of the individual pieces for the Raptors… The unbalance is hard to overcome.  Who exactly is in charge?

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The Raptors are 4-12 ATS in a road game where the total is 220 - 229.5

The Nuggets are 22-10 ATS in home games this season.

Raptors:  SF Scottie Barnes.  Though Scottie should be the PG and the team should trade for pieces that fit with him… Scottie still shines on the defensive end in whatever position he is placed.  He has a very bright future.

Nuggets: PG Jamal Murray.  Jamal is the key piece on the Nuggets.  It is that simple.  If Jamal gets 20 and 8… or 25 and 3… or 19 and 10… the Nuggets are certain to get most of everything else from Jokic to make it a surefire win.  SF/PF Aaron Gordon is a key piece for the defense but I can think of 7 guys that can fill his shoes… the mix of jamal scoring AND deferring from teh PG position is pretty unique right now in the league.

Raptors: Nick “I’ve seen better hats” Nurse

Nuggets Mike “I don’t wear a hat” Malone