NBA Basketball: San Antonio Spurs VS New Orleans Pelicans Pick and Predictions 03/21/2023

Game: 8:10 PM ET,  Tuesday, March 21st, 2023

Venue: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana

TV:  NBA League Pass

Spurs: 19-52, 14th place Western Conference

Pelicans: 34-37, 12th place Western Conference

BetMGM:  Point Spread: Pelicans -13.5, O/U 231.5

PointsBet: Point Spread: Pelicans -13, O/U 231.5

Fanduel: Point Spread:  Pelicans 13, O/U 231

Spurs: PG Tre Jones, SG Malaki Branham, SF Doug McDermott, PF Keita Bates Diop, C Sandro Mamukelashvili

Pelicans: PG CJ McCollum, SG Trey Murphy III, SF Brandon Ingram, PF Herbert Jones, C Jonas Valanciunas

A Western Conference NBA battle of the full disappointments.  The San Antonio Spurs have been in a wild 5-6 year funk.  The once proud team who were Champions of the entire league 5 times from the late 90’s to early 2000’s.. Who is led by the winningest coach in league history...  Who has turned a small market team into an absolute basketball mecca… Have now been totally irrelevant since SF Kawhi Leonard was shipped to Toronto in 2018.. Instead of losing him in free agency the following year (as Toronto eventually did). Those guys have hit rock bottom and now face the reality of openly “tanking” for better draft position.  Oh how the mighty have fallen.  You might think the -13.5 point spread in favor of the Pelicans is DRASTIC and worth a bet on the underdogs… HOWEVER… this game is also “audition day” as the Spurs have ruled out 4 starters from an already bad team… That means the Spurs will be putting guys on the floor that should be in the G-League from top to bottom.  The New Orleans Pelicans have screwed up the only job they had this year… Do better than the Lakers.  The Pelicans have the right to swap picks this season with the Lakers and a clear shot to build on last season’s surprising playoff success…and they failed to do either.  The front office for the Pelicans is truly insane. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different success.  For the last 7 seasons the Pelicans have been avoiding the reality that their BIG MAN PF/C… simply will never be healthy enough to ever contribute.  It was 3 seasons with Anthony Davis and now 4 seasons of Zion Williamson simply not being able to stay on the floor… What the team did for both frequently injured players was to give them massive contract extensions that killed their salary cap!  The great betting opportunity here is all about seeing the easy win for the Pelicans and then wondering if you are ever the type of person who would bet for a 13.5 point favorite with a losing record?

The San Antonio Spurs have won 5 of their last 10 games.  They went 6-4 ATS during that stretch… which by the way is the best 10 game stretch they have had all year.  The front office has immediately responded to this Victor Wembanyama shunning behavior by shuffling 4 starters onto the Injury List… They will not be hurried back. The Spurs won their last game 126-118 over the Atlanta Hawks for a big win while they were massive underdogs.  In the win they got 29 points, 12 rebounds, and 5 assists from their best player SF Keldon Johnson (who was playing PF), and 29 points from SG Devin Vassell (who was playing SF)... add to that 19 points & 8 rebounds from C Zach Collins and they got the win.  All 3 of those players will now join PF Jeremy Sochan on the injury list… until they learn that losing is the mission this year!

The New Orleans Pelicans have won only 4 of their last 10 games as a mostly unchanged playoff roster from last year is sliding hard DOWN the standings.  They won their last game against the Houston Rockets 117-107. In the win the Pelicans got 26 points from SF Brandon Ingram and 26 points from SG CJ McCollum… Those are the teams two stars while Zion is Out and Zion is always out so those are the guys that need big games every time they play.  Second year SF Trey Murphy III has performed admirably (he had 14 points) as the team has shuffled him from SF to SG to PF… basically playing him anywhere they need a body.  Other teams will make calls about him this next trade cycle after the Draft.  The Pacers could use him at SF very MUCH… and they have a ton of guards they have to unload.

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Our prediction for Tuesday, March 21st is…. Pelicans 118 - Spurs 89

Bet on the Pelicans to cover that HUGE spread.  Although I would never normally endorse betting for the favorite with a double digit spread in the NBA… In this case the Spurs will be starting a team where no one averages more than 8 points a game… sure with extra minutes may come extra points… but who is going to be the reserves for these starting reserves?

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The Spurs are 5-18 ATS when the total is 220 or greater this season.

The Spurs are 11-22 ATS as a road underdog this season.

The Pelicans have not been a home favorite by this many points the last 3 seasons.

Spurs: Absolutely nobody.  None playing for the Spurs in this game is in their long term plans… OR in their immediate plans.  They are simply accumulated bodies that would get thrown into deals to match salary and then cut by the team that receives them.

Pelicans: SF Brandon Ingram.  Brandon is the overlooked SF. The guy is not much thought of outside of New Orleans… but he is a consistent scorer with a body that resembles Kevin Durant.. Tall, skinny and smooth shooting.  He needs his team to simply build that correct situation for him to thrive.

Spurs: Greg “Grey Dawg” Poppovich

Pelicans: Willie “dust off that resume” Green