NBA Basketball: New Orleans Pelicans VS Denver Nuggets Pick and Predictions 03/30/2023

Game: 10:00 PM ET, Thursday, March 30th, 2023

Venue:  Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado

TV:  TNT

Pelicans: 38-38, 9th place Western Conference

Nuggets: 51-24, 1st place Western Conference

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Nuggets -5.5, O/U 226.5

PointsBet: Point Spread: Nuggets -5.5, O/U 226.5

Fanduel: Point Spread:  Nuggets -5.5, O/U 226.5

Pelicans: PG CJ McCollum, SG Trey Murphy III, SF Brandon Ingram, PF Herbert Jones, C Jonas Valanciunas

Nuggets: PG Jamal Murray, SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SF Michael Porter JR, PF Aaron Gordon, C Nikola Jokic

A Western Conference late night TNT game… That is a bit of a mismatch in reality… but frustratingly not a mismatch on paper.  The New Orleans Pelicans were last season’s playoff darlings but they could not get over the fact that they have spent the last 4 seasons held hostage by PF Zion Williamson’s health.  Zion recently passed the mark of missed games that officially makes him a draft BUST.  He may be great!.. He may find health and spend the next decade ruling the league?… But as of now? He is on par with Portland Center Greg Oden.  The Pelicans will never get these last 4 seasons back… and they should kick themselves because they had PF Julius Randle in house and let him walk… while they could have traded Zion’s pick for a record amount of picks and players in return!  Cest La Vie’ . The remaining Pelicans roster is actually good thanks to Brandon Ingram III, CJ McCollum, and surprisingly SF Trey Murphy III playing as a SG.  The Denver Nuggets are the best team in the West… er…uh… Or more specifically they have the best record in the West. The Nuggets have C Nikopla Jokic who has won the last 2 MVP awards and has made a strong case for his 3rd in a row.  However Nikola is listed as Day to Day for this game.  Thai game is not important to the Nuggets… certainly not as much as having a healthy squad for the Playoffs will be.  The great betting opportunity here is in the spread.  5.5 points can be covered in the NBA by even bad teams.

The New Orleans Pelicans have won 6 of their last 10 games.  They have a serious problem at the moment.  They own the right to swap draft picks with the Lakers and they are 1 game behind the Lakers with 7 games left to play!  If they could get a couple wins they not only could make the PLAYOFFS?... but they also could then use an expiring draft asset (the swap) without it expiring meaninglessly.  They lost their last game to the Golden State Warriors 120-109.  They got 29 points from SF Barndon Ingram and 21 points from PF Trey Murphy III.. Ultimately the bench for the Pelicans disappointed.  

The Denver Nuggets have won 5 of their last 10 games.  They are on a 4-game winning streak but have shown how they have a tendency to lose if Nikola misses games.  They went 4-6 ATS during that stretch.  They won their last game over the Philadelphia 76ers 116-111… Embiid did not play for the Sixers in that game.  In the win they got 25 points, 17 rebounds, and 12 assists from C Nikola Jokic.  Triple doubles are Jokic’s thing.  He stuffs a stat sheet better than all but perhaps 2 or 3 players in history.  PG Jamal Murray chipped in 19 points, 5 rebounds, and 7 assists… but the win was all Jokic.

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Our prediction for Thursday, March 30th is…. Pelicans 122 - Nuggets 119

Bet on the Pelicans.  The deep thought segment is that they will cover if Jokic plays limited minutes and that they will win outright if Jokic misses the game entirely.  It is a fair amount of point to put in your pocket… and the listing of Jokic as Day to Day is too much to ignore.

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The Pelicans are 4-15 ATs as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.

The Nuggets are 23-14 ATS as a home favorite this season.

Pelicans: PG CJ McCollum.  CJ is a really fine player.  He spent a lot of years as the #2 to Damian Lilliard’s #1 in Portland… Here he is out of his comfort spot at SG and handling the Point.  He is still doing very well.  This team could shoot to the next level if they found a Point guard of any talent in this coming draft… and that would allow CJ to slide back over.

Nuggets: PF Aaron Gordon.  Aaron Gordon is a defender first and foremost… soo lots of games he simply disappears in the scoring column… but he is very much needed.  Against a team like the Pelicans.. He could shut down Ingram and Trey Murphy III… BUT can he shut them both down?

Pelicans: Willie “he ready” Green

Nuggets: Michael “Maloney Baloney” Malone