NBA Basketball: Milwaukee Bucks VS Golden State Warriors Pick and Predictions 03/11/2023

Game: 8:30 PM ET,  Saturday, March 11th, 2023

Venue: Chase Center, San Francisco, California

TV:  ABC

Bucks: 48-18, 1st place Eastern Conference

Warriors: 34-33, 7th place Western Conference

BetMGM:  Point Spread: Warriors -1.5, O/U 240.5

PointsBet: Point Spread: Warriors -1, O/U 240.5

Fanduel: Point Spread:  Warriors -1, O/U 241

Bucks: PG Jrue Holiday, SG Grayson Allen, SF Khris Middleton, PF Giannis Antetokounmpo, C Brook Lopez

Warriors: PG Stephen Curry, SG Klay Thompson, SF Donte DiVincenzo, PF Draymond Green, C Kevon Looney

An inter-conference battle of heavyweights. The Milwaukee Bucks are the first place team in the Eastern Conference… a spot they took from the Boston Celtics because of sheer winning over their last 20 games… in fact they’ve gone 19-1 over the last 20.  That is winning with rocket fuel!  The Bucks of course are led by Giannis, a perennial top-3 player in the NBA and seemingly unstoppable two-way player for long stretches throughout every game… but they also have a fair amount of depth.  The Golden State Warriors are the league’s defending champs so they can’t be taken lightly even if they aren’t playing up last year’s abilities while they are mired in 7th place in the West.  Hoop heads keep waiting for the Warriors to turn it on… like flipping a switch and everything will be good… but they simply haven’t found another gear yet… Also they will be missing Forwards Andrew Wiggins and Jonathan Kuminga that will leave them shorthanded on the wings.  The great betting opportunity here will be found in that injury list for the Warriors.. Missing guys is standard but missing two key guys who spend most of their time at the same position is too tough to overcome.

The Milwaukee Bucks have won 9 of their last 10 games… going 6-4 ATS during that stretch.  They have lost a few ATS but Bucks spreads these days tend to be inflated to reflect their 16 game winning streak which was broken by the Philadelphia 76ers… and has now returned as a 3-game winning streak since.  They won their last game against the Brooklyn Nets 118-113. IN the win they got 24 points & 10 rebounds from C Brook Lopez and 28 points & 13 rebounds from PF Bobby Portis… Giannis did not play as he was tending to wrist soreness and the Nets were missing several players to injury themselves.

The Golden State Warriors have won 5 of their last 10 games… Going 5-5 ATS during that stretch.  They are on a 3-game losing streak as they contend with injuries to key pieces.  PG Stephen Curry returned to the lineup after missing a few weeks, but as he rejoined others dropped off.  They lost their last game to the Memphis Grizzlies 131-110 who were playing without “gun toting” PG Ja Morant. In that loss the Warriors got 29 points from PG Stephen Curry and 22 points from SG Jordan Poole…. Draymond Green came up big as the emergency Center logging 16 points, 5 rebounds, and 7 assists.. But recent standout SF Donte DiVincenzo had his worst game in a Warriors jersey logging only 2 points in 20 minutes and registering -25 on the +/- scale.

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Our prediction for Saturday, March 11th is…. Bucks 133 - Warriors 120

The Warriors are favored at home as they play very well at home… BUT bet on the Bucks.  The reason the Bucks are not heavily favored is that Giannis may again not play in this one… BUT the Warriors are missing too many key guys in Wiggins and Kuminga… and possibly Klay Thompson… That leave them desperately short handed on the wings.

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The Warriors are 2-0 ATS versus the Bucks in Golden State the last 3 seasons.

The Bucks are 14-7 ATS in non-conference games this season.

The Bucks are 17-7 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread.

Bucks: C Brook Lopez.  I wonder if people remember the 20+-10+ per night all-star that C Brook Lopez was for the first decade of his career?.  Brook is good and has been happily deferring to Giannis who may be the best player on the planet.  Brook is a support player at the moment to a bigger star… but when Giannis misses a game and the Warriors try to plug 6’6 Draymond Green into the Center spot?... Brook will have another big game.

Warriors: SG Jordan Poole.  Jordan was the recipient of a big contract extension this season… he is the best bench scorer the Warriors have and can easily go off for 30 point nights if the shots are falling.  That is also part of the problem though… Jordan shoots like a rerun of Curry… except when Jordan hurls it up?... It’s not always the best shot selection… and not always at a good time on the shot clock.  He is a very talented player that needs to lock in on defense more.

Bucks: Mike “got 1 ring so far” Budenholzer

Warriors: Steve “Lord of the Rings” Kerr