NBA Basketball: Boston Celtics VS Milwaukee Bucks Pick and Predictions 03/30/2023

Game: 7:30 PM ET, Thursday, March 30th, 2023

Venue:  Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin

TV:  TNT

Celtics: 52-24, 2nd place Eastern Conference

Bucks: 55-21, 1st place Eastern Conference

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Bucks -2.5, O/U 236.5

PointsBet: Point Spread: Bucks -2.5, O/U 237

Fanduel: Point Spread:  Bucks -2.5, O/U 237

Celtics: PG Marcus Smart, SF Jayson Tatum, SG Jaylen Brown, PF Al Horford, C Robert Williams III (DD) 

Bucks: PG Jrue Holiday, SG Grayson Allen, SF Khris Middleton (DD), PF Giannis Antetokounmpo, C Brook Lopez

An Eastern Conference brawl between the two best teams in the East and maybe in the league.  The Boston Celtics have a big man problem.  C Robert Williams III is listed as Day to Day and behind him is very little safety net.  Sure they picked up C Jakob Poeltl… and they have toyed with Al Horford at Center while Jayson Tatum plays the PF… But that is not ideal for the 2nd place Celtics who fully expect a Championship this season.  What would be good is if Robert Williams III makes it through the Playoffs without having to miss games or needing a minutes limitation.  Afterall the Celtics have the best tandem of 2-way players in SG Brown and SF Tatum… They also have a solid Point guard in Marcus Smart… They have several quality guards coming off the bench to score buckets.  They only really need solid big man play in order to beat anybody… will they get it.  The Milwaukee Bucks are built differently… They don’t have a tandem of great two-way players… They have an absolute Hammer of perhaps the best single basketball player on the planet right now in PF Giannis Antetokounmpo.  He has a solid roster behind him… and they make great backup dancers to the Giannis Show. It feels like everyone will struggle and lose against the Bucks in a series because no team has a player capable of stopping Giannis.  The great betting opportunity here is in deciding who will push the envelope to get this win?

The Boston Celtics have won 7 of their last 10 games and all the NBA press seems to focus on is that they are struggling… Or perhaps that their rookie head coach may not have it come playoff time because of his lack of experience. To illustrate the struggles the Celtics lost their last game to the woeful Washington Wizards 130-111!  In that game they got 28 points, 9 rebounds, and 5 assists from SF Jayson Tatum… but a bad shooting night from SG Jaylen Brown (0-4 from 3; 9-19 from the field) who finished with 18 points.  C Robert Williams III played only 015 minutes with 0 points, 4 rebounds, and 1 assist.  Al Horford slid into the Center spot and played awful 2-10 from the field, 1-7 from 3-point territory… finishing with 5 points. This team needs Williams to be healthy or they will struggle with several key guys playing out of their optimal position.  The Wizards benefitted from the Celtics big man woes by watching Kristaps Porzingis land 32 points, 13 rebounds, and 6 assists.  

The Milwaukee Bucks have won 7 of their last 10 games. They went 5-5 ATS during that stretch.  They won their last game against the Indiana Pacers 149-136… It was a game where the defense was discarded in favor of pushing and shooting.  In the win the Bucks got 38 points, 17 rebounds, and 12 assists from PF Giannis Antetokounmpo in JUST 32 minutes of play.  A monster triple double from an unstoppable force, in a short amount of minutes, as the best player on the best team?.... And we keep hearing Embiid or Joker for MVP?  If you haven’t heard PG Jrue Holiday had 51 points, 8 rebounds, and 8 assists… Now they were playing the Pacers without PG Tyrese Haliburton and C Myles Turner… so some of that result is laughable.. And they should be embarrassed that they let rookie Pacer’s SG Ben Mathurin land 29 points & 9 rebounds… but none of that game was about defense and the Bucks let it all happen since they had a big lead all the way through.

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Our prediction for Thursday, March 30th is…. Celtics 122 - Bucks 120

Bet on the Celtics.  Your gut will tell you the Bucks… your gut is wrong.  The Bucks just gave up 136 points to a lottery team that was missing it’s two best players.  That is all because the Bucks can taste the postseason, have nothing left to prove… and will handle Khris Middelton and Giannis Antetokounmpo with a “live to play another day” attitude… Meanwhile the Celtics need this win.. Not for the standings… but as a confidence builder.  Plus Horford and Brown do not have back to back bad shooting games.

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Boston is 7-0 ATS versus the Bucks in Milwaukee the last 3 seasons.

Boston is 13-2 ATS versus the Bucks overall the last 3 seasons.

Milwaukee is 14-4 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season.

Celtics: PG Marcus Smart.  Marcus is terribly underrated, because much of what he does is on the defensive end. Marcus is capable of leading this team but will face his biggest challenge against Jrue Holiday.  That is because Holiday is just a better version of Marcus.  Holiday is a great defender who can score at a higher rate.  Marcus needs to step up in this matchup more than any other in the entire league.

Bucks: PF Giannis Antetokounmpo.  Giannis should be more vocal about his own case for MVP… Yeah he has 2 of them… but he has some things The Joker and Embiid don't. 1) A Championship  2) The best record in the league and 3) he plays through pain without complaints or drama.  

Celtics: Joe “who am I?” Mazzula

Bucks: Mike “I’m still with Giannis” Budenholzer