NBA Basketball: Atlanta Hawks VS Miami Heat Pick and Predictions 03/06/2023

Game: 7:40 PM ET,  Monday, March 6th, 2023

Venue: FTX Arena, Miami, Florida

TV:  NBA TV

Hawks: 32-32, 8th place Eastern Conference

Heat: 34-31, 7th place Eastern Conference

BetMGM:  Point Spread: Heat -2.5, O/U 229.5

PointsBet: Point Spread: Heat -3, O/U 229.5

Fanduel: Point Spread:  Heat -3, O/U 229.5

Heat: PG Gabe Vincent, SG Tyler Herro, SF Jimmy Butler, PF Caleb Martin, C Bam Adebayo

Hawks: PG Trae Young, SG Dejounte Murray, SF De’Andre Hunter, PF John Collins, C Clint Capela

An Eastern Conference battle of the 8th and 7th place teams.  These are teams that expected better of this season… They didn’t get it… but if they focus and push they could still make waves in the playoffs before being eliminated and re-shuffling the deck.  The Miami Heat have a real interesting reality.  The core of the Heat SF Jimmy Butler is a great two-way player who is aging out of being important in this league.  The PF and C combination of Clint Capela and John Collins was great when it started but has shown weakness that they didn’t expect to have.  SG Tyler Herro was supposed to be a star by now… but when he hit the ceiling he hit it hard…. He will never be better than a good shooter who is soft on defense.  So what is left for the heat?… especially as PG Kyle Lowry and PF (new addition) Kevin Love are out with injury… What is left is to make noise for now,,, and enter a quick rebuild this summer.  The roster is made up of many fine NBA players, but starting to look like the cast of the movie Cocoon.  The Atlanta Hawks was supposed to be really good by now… They have one of the most exciting young scorers in the league in PG Trea Young… In the offseason they added PG Dejounte Murray from the San Antonio Spurs… Well when it comes to OVERALL game?..  It turns out that Dejounte is the better player, but Trae doesn’t often give up the ball.  Plus Trae doesn’t play the level of defense that his backcourt mate does routinely.  This team has spent the last 3 offseasons and trade deadlines failing to move PF John Collins… Now they will have to decide whether they move Trae and John… That is if they expect to grow.  The great betting opportunity here is in seeing the injury list and adding the recent trends.

The Atlanta Hawks have won 5 of their last 10 games.. Typical of a .500 team that keeps treading water around 8th in the league.  They went 4-6 ATS during that stretch. They lost their last game to THESE SAME Miami Heat, also in Miami, 117-109. In that loss they got only 10 points from Dejounte Murray and 8 points from Trae Young… as both starting guards had awful shooting nights.  Capela had 16 points and Collins had 17 points… the absence of teamwork and defense could be seen from the parking lot.

The Miami Heat have won only 4 of their last 10 games.  They have had injury absences, defensive lapses, and a full breakdown of identity.  They went 3-7 ATS during the stretch.  They won their last game against THESE SAME Atlanta Hawks 117-109.. In that win they got 30 points, 11 rebounds, and 5 assists from C Bam Adebayo. 20 points from SG Tyler Herro and 15 points, 11 rebounds, and 7 assists from SF Jimmy Butler. The Heat are playing with a few players out but because they have a solid culture they tend to play defense all the way through.

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Our prediction for Monday, March 6th is…. Hawks 120 - Heat 117

Bet on the Hawks… Yes they just lost to these same guys, BUT there is no way that Trae Young AND Dejounte Murray will have equally bad shooting nights back to back… any improvement over 5 of 27 from the field (combined shooting) would have made the last game an actual close game… They will get that improvement.

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Miami is 37-19 ATS versus Atlanta since 1996.

Miami is 6-2 ATS versus Atlanta the last 3 seasons.

6 of 7 of these games in Miami have gone UNDER.

Hawks: PG/SG Dejounte Murray.  A big guard who does lots of things very well… from offense to defense he is always locked in.  His resume stinks like dead fish since he has only played for losing Spurs teams and now is the big addition to an underperforming Hawks team?... However in both places there has been no significant roster to maximize his ability.  If Dejounte was the Point guard in Denver or in Milwaukee.. We would have a more dramatic view of the coming playoffs.

Heat: SF Jimmy Butler. He is not a random superstar.  He is a defensive hustler that can also score well.  That is a different type of guy… That is a guy that would work in any jersey and on any roster and he has worn a few. Hopefully he gets a day in the sun before the skills erode where he has a Batman to his Robin on a squad.

Hawks: Quin “they love me in… wherever” Snyder

Heat: Erik “ count my rings” Spoelstra