NBA 2021-22: Top 10 In-season Trends

by Al McMordie

Monday, Nov 29, 2021
We're more than 20 games into the NBA season, so it's a great time to take stock of the trends that have developed over the first six weeks.  Here are our Top 10 most interesting ones.

First, unrested teams that had to travel between games (i.e., they didn't play at home on back to back nights) have gone 22-31-1 ATS vs. rested opponents, including a woeful 7-18 ATS vs. opponents off a straight-up loss.  

Second, NBA teams off games where they failed to cover the point spread by nine (or more) points have gone 32-14 ATS, including 8-0 ATS if installed as an underdog of more than seven points, and 11-1 ATS vs. unrested foes.

Third, teams off an upset loss have gone 15-6 ATS vs. opponents off an upset win, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when laying seven (or more) points, as well as 11-1 ATS at home.

Fourth, revengers have gone 38-30 ATS, including 14-6-1 ATS as a home favorite, as well as a perfect 5-0 ATS if they lost the first meeting by 29 (or more) points.

Fifth, favorites off back-to-back losses have gone 30-19 ATS, including 19-8 ATS if they owned a win percentage greater than .380.

Sixth, road underdogs off back to back home wins have gone 2-10 ATS, including 0-8 ATS if our road team owned a winning record, as well as 0-10 ATS if its opponent owned a W/L percentage of .400 (or better).

Seventh, the Unders have gone 168-132, including 15-5 Under if the O/U line was greater than 227.

Eighth, NBA teams off a game where they scored 90 (or less) points have gone 26-17 ATS vs. foes that didn't score 90 (or less) in their previous game, including a perfect 10-0 ATS when priced from -1.5 to -6.5 points.

Ninth, rested favorites have gone 26-16 ATS in division contests, including 10-1 ATS if their opponent was off a win by more than five points.

And, tenth, home favorites, off a home game, have gone 29-7-1 ATS vs. opponents off a win, including 4-0-1 ATS when playing with revenge, and also 13-1 ATS if our home team was off a home loss.

Good luck, as always,
Al McMordie

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