Navy Midshipmen vs. SMU Mustangs: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 10/14/2022

Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

Venue: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX

Where to watch: ESPN

DraftKings: Check back later

FanDuel: Check back later

BetMGM: Check back later

Caesars: Check back later

Navy: 2-3 (2-1 AAC)

SMU: 2-3 (0-1 AAC)

Navy: won 53-21 vs. Tulsa

SMU: lost 41-19 at UCF

Here’s your AAC game of the week that could literally go either way. Even at first glance, I have no idea if the SMU Mustangs can recover, even though they should, when they return home to face the Navy Midshipmen on Friday night. SMU has lost three in a row against really good opponents, while Navy has won two of three and has to deal with the fact that it’s not as good as Air Force right now. As far as I’m concerned, it’s totally tomato tomatoe, if you know what I mean.

It's been a slow start to the year for Navy, and things didn’t look great out of the gates with a 14-7 loss to Delaware to begin the year. But since then – and since getting thrashed 37-13 by Memphis at home – Navy has come back with wins over East Carolina in double overtime and, as of last week, a 53-21 home win over the Tulsa Golden Hurricane this past Saturday. Running back Daba Fofana ran for 159 yards and three touchdowns, while Vincent Terrell Jr. added 93 yards and a score on 17 carries. The much-maligned Navy defense stepped up when needed, jumping out to a 33-7 lead at one point in the second quarter. The Midshipmen defense held Tulsa to just 309 yards and forced four turnovers.

Navy’s offense isn’t going to put up 490 yards every game on the ground, but it was a good sign for them to at least handle a middle-of-the=pack Tulsa squad. Tulsa came into that game as 4.5-point favorites, and Navy just decided to hold onto the ball for almost 41 minutes and ran it down their throats. That’s a good sign of things to come. Even if it’s not consistent, it should be the formula that gets Navy back to bowl contention.

It would be one thing if SMU’s three-game losing streak was a mixture of bad teams beating them soundly, but SMU has legit ran into some very good competition as of late in these three losses. Maryland and TCU were something, but getting blitzed by a strong UCF defense was the icing on the cake for this one. SMU quarterback Tanner Mordecai’s struggles from late last season continued into this week by throwing for 295 yards and an interception, and the SMU defense turned into a pumpkin in the second half by giving up 31 unanswered points in the 41-19 loss to one of the co-favorites in the American Conference. SMU also ran for 113 yards and two touchdowns on 31 carries as a unit, so that should tell you how off-balanced the offense was.

The receivers are going to get theirs, especially Rashee Rice when he caught 12 passes for 122 yards, but the SMU defense can’t falter like it has the last few weeks. If it wants to be taken considered seriously in this realm of the conference, it needs to play better and win games like this.

I’d take a guess that SMU is not scoring 19 points at home. Sometimes that’s all a team needs against a team it should be better than. But if Navy starts holding the clock, it’s going to be a long day if SMU’s offense can’t get on the field. I think the Mustangs find a way to take advantage this week. SMU by 13

Navy has covered ATS in six of its last eight.

The under has hit in four of Navy's last six.

SMU is 0-4 in its last four ATS, with the spread being 3 or less in the last three.

The under has hit in four of SMU's last five.

Passing: Tai Lavatai -- 524 yards, 2 TD

Rushing: Daba Fofana -- 278 yards, 3 TD

Receiving: Vincent Terrell Jr. -- 146 yards, 1 TD

Passing: Tanner Mordecai -- 1,680 yards, 12 TD, 6 INT

Rushing: Velton Gardner -- 230 yards, 1 TD

Receiving: Rashee Rice -- 687 yards, 4 TD