Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Thursday, October 14, 2021
Venue: Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis, TN
Where to Watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Navy +8.5, Memphis -8.5; Over/Under: 52.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Navy +8.5, Memphis -8.5; Over/Under: 52.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Navy +8, Memphis -8; Over/Under: 52 points
Navy Midshipmen: 1-4 (8th place, AAC)
Memphis Tigers: 3-3 (10th place, AAC)
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Navy Midshipmen vs Memphis Tigers Preview and Analysis
Navy Midshipmen: lost at home on Oct. 9 against the SMU Mustangs 31-24.
Memphis Tigers: lost on the road on Oct. 9 to the Tulsa Golden Hurricane 35-29.
Navy Midshipmen Analysis
Navy is coming into this game with a 1-4 record overall and they are 0-1 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. This will be their 4th conference matchup of the season and they are already a bit behind with a 1-2 record in their conference games this season. Their 1 conference win came in a game against the UCF Knights while their 2 losses were against the Houston Cougars and SMU in their last game. Navy did not really have a passing game in that one, as usual, as Tai Lavatai completed 4/7 passes for 64 yards and 1 touchdown. He also led the team in rushing with 53 yards on 24 carries. Chance Warren had 30 rushing yards on 3 carries and Carlinos Acie had 5 carries for 25 yards rushing. They did not really have a strong running game in that one. Kai Puailoa Rojas led the receivers with 37 yards and 1 touchdown on 1 reception in what was a very quiet day for the receivers. Diego Fagot led the defense with 5 solo tackles and 2 assisted ones while Johnny Hodges had 3 solo tackles, 11 assisted ones and the only interception for the team in that game. Clay Cromwell recorded the only sack for the defense as well. They have scored 88 points in their first 5 games averaging 17.6 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 161 points against them allowing 32.2 PPG. Their offense is averaging 282.6 YPG while their defense is allowing 360.6 YPG.
Memphis Tigers Analysis
Memphis is coming into this college football game with a 3-3 record overall and they are 2-1 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. This will be their 3rd conference matchup on their schedule and they have already fallen behind with a 0-2 record in their conference games this season. Their 2 losses in the conference came against the Temple Owls and Tulsa in their last game. They lost that game 35-29 and tried to make a late comeback but they were trailing for most of the game. Seth Henigan played well in that game but he also had his moments where he struggled as he completed 34/57 passes for 463 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Brandon Thomas led the team in rushing with 77 yards and 2 touchdowns on 18 carries but he was pretty much their whole running game in that one. Calvin Austin III had a massive day as a receiver as he led the team with 200 yards receiving and 1 TD on 13 receptions. Javon Ivory also had 61 yards on 3 receptions and Sean Dykes had the other touchdown through the air in what was a great day for the receiving corps. Sanchez Blake Jr. led the defense with 5 solo tackles and 3 assisted ones in that game. Quindell Johnson had 4 solo tackles and 4 assisted ones while Jacobi Francis was right behind him with 4 solo tackles. No one on the defense recorded a sack or an interception in that game. They have scored 216 points in their first 6 games averaging 36 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 196 points against them allowing 32.67 PPG. Their offense is averaging 499.3 YPG while their defense is allowing 457.5 YPG.
Navy vs Memphis Prediction
Memphis has not had a good defense all year as they are allowing a lot of yards and a lot of points against them. They are scoring a lot of points though, as their offense averages over 35 points per game. Navy will be able to find holes in this Memphis defense and find ways to score points on them. They are only averaging 17 points on the season but their last 3 games they have scored over 20 points in each of them. Memphis will have no problems moving the ball on this Navy defense either. This should be a high scoring game where both teams score a good amount of points. The best bet to place in this game is on the over as there will be points from both teams in what should be a higher scoring game from both sides.
Navy Memphis Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Thursday, October 14, 2021 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Memphis 42 Navy 24.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Navy Midshipmen: 190-142 ATS in all games. 35-23 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. 55-35 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 107-69 ATS as an underdog. 63-29 ATS as a road underdog. 89-50 ATS in road games. 62-34 ATS against conference opponents.
Memphis Tigers: 157-172 ATS in all games. 71-80 ATS as a favorite. 44-56 ATS as a home favorite. 98-114 ATS against conference opponents.
Navy Midshipmen: M. West (S) Ques Thurs - Leg injury.
Memphis Tigers: G. Gunnell (QB) Out indefinitely - Lower Body injury.
Players to Watch
Navy Midshipmen: Tai Lavatai is one player to watch in this contest. He is taking over at the quarterback position and already leads the team in passing in just a couple of games. This is a run heavy offense so it will be up to him to lead this offense to success with all of the running plays and few passing plays they run. Look for him to keep putting in a good effort and leading his team down the field to score in this one.
Memphis Tigers: Calvin Austin III is one player to watch here. He leads his team in receiving yards and in touchdowns scored this season. He is coming off of a massive day where he had 200 yards receiving and he is a big part of this offense. Look for him to keep playing this way and make some big catches down the field and in the end zone in this game.
“They had a good plan on defense. But I made some misreads that affects us. They didn’t want to let us get to the edge because we had success there against UCF.” - Tai Lavatai after their loss to SMU in their last game.
“A missed kick that changed the fortunes of a lot of people, of this program. A lot of things have happened since we played that game.” - Ryan Silverfield before their game with Tulsa that they ended up losing last week.
WR Walker, Mark
WR Cooper, Mychal
QB Lavatai, Tai
RB Warren, Chance
RB Acie, Carlinos
FB Harris II, James
WR Austin III, Calvin
WR Rogers, Gabriel
WR Ivory, Javon
TE Dykes, Sean
QB Henigan, Seth
RB Thomas, Brandon
TB Fleming, Cameron
Passing: T. Lavatai (130)
Rushing: I. Ruoss (233)
Receiving: J. Sanders (83)
Touchdowns: X. Arline (2)
Sacks: C. Cromwell (1.5)
Tackles: D. Fagot (27)
Passing: S. Henigan (1938)
Rushing: B. Thomas (586)
Receiving: C. Austin III (837)
Touchdowns: C. Austin III (8)
Sacks: J. Allen (1.5)
Tackles: J. Russell (44)
Navy Midshipmen: Ken Niumatalolo (15th season)
Memphis Tigers: Ryan Silverfield (2nd season)
77 degrees F scattered showers, 68% humidity, 30% chance of rain, up to 9 mph wind speeds S.