Navy Midshipmen vs Houston Cougars Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/25/2021

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Saturday, September 25, 2021
Venue:  TDECU Stadium, Houston, TX
Where to Watch:  ESPNU


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Navy +19, Houston -19; Over/Under:  48 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  Navy +19, Houston -19; Over/Under:  48 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  _Navy +19, Houston -19; Over/Under:  48.5 points

Season Record

Navy Midshipmen:  0-2 (10th place, AAC)
Houston Cougars:  2-1 (5th place, AAC)
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Navy Midshipmen vs Houston Cougars Preview and Analysis

Recent Form
Navy Midshipmen:  lost at home on Sep. 11 to the Air Force Falcons 23-3.
Houston Cougars:  won at home on Sep. 18 against the Grambling State Tigers 45-0.

Navy Midshipmen Analysis

Navy is coming into this game with a 0-2 record overall this season. This will be their first road game and their first conference matchup of the season. Navy lost in their season opener to the Marshall Thundering Herd and then followed that up with a loss to the Air Force Academy. They had last week off to regroup but they have not looked good in their first 2 games so far. In their last game, they had no passing game at all as Maasai Maynor completed 3/5 passes for 32 yards. Their run game did not do anything either as Xavier Arline led the team with 31 rushing yards on 16 carries. Mychal Cooper led the team in receiving with 15 yards on 1 reception but overall, this offense was stunted in their last game completely. Diego Fagot led the defense with 7 solo tackles and 6 assisted ones in that game. Jay Warren and Clay Cromwell both had 1 sack combined in that game while no one on the defense had an interception. They have scored 10 points in their first 2 games and they have allowed their opponents to score 72 points against them. Their offense is averaging 233 YPG while their defense is allowing 344.5 YPG.

Houston Cougars Analysis

Houston is coming into this college football game with a 2-1 record overall and is 1-0 in home games where they will be in this one. This will be their first conference game of the season. They lost their first game of the season against the Texas Tech Red Raiders but then they followed that up with wins against the Rice Owls and the Grambling State Tigers. Ike Ogbogu played well in their last game completing 14/22 passes for 196 yards and 2 touchdowns. Clayton Tune got some work at the quarterback position as well but he completed 4/7 passes for 62 total yards and 1 interception. Their run game had a nice day as Alton McCaskill led the team in rushing with 114 yards and 2 touchdowns on 16 carries. Nathaniel Dell had a good day for the receiving corps as he led the team with 134 yards and 2 touchdowns on 8 receptions. Donavan Mutin led the defense with 5 solo tackles and 2 assisted ones. David Anenih led the defense in sacks with 1.5 while no one came away with an interception in that game. They have scored 110 points in their first 3 games and they have allowed their opponents to score 45 points against them. Their offense is averaging 355.3 YPG while their defense is allowing 230 YPG.


Navy vs Houston Prediction

Navy has not looked good in their games on offense as they have absolutely no passing game. All they can do is run the ball and once that is stopped, they have nothing left going for them. Houston's offense has been moving the ball well this season so they are going to put up points in this game, and a lot of them. If Navy falls too far behind, they will not be able to throw the ball or even make a comeback. Navy might not even be able to score here if Houston's defense stops the run so the total is tricky here but the best play is for Houston to cover the spread as they will win by a lot here.
Navy Houston Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 25, 2021 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Houston 42 Navy 7.
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NCAAF Betting Trends

Navy Midshipmen: 104-69 ATS as an underdog. 88-50 ATS in road games. 
Houston Cougars: 166-171 ATS in all games. 101-114 ATS against conference opponents.

Key Injuries

Navy Midshipmen:  M. West (S) Ques Sat - Leg injury. T. Lavatai (QB) Ques Sat - Knee injury.
Houston Cougars:  C. Tune (QB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury. J. Fullbright III (RB) out for season - Knee injury. C. Nwankwo (DL) Out indefinitely - Suspension.

Players to Watch

Navy Midshipmen: Xavier Arline is one player to watch in this game. He leads his team in rushing yards and in touchdowns. They have not scored much this season but if they do put up some points in this game he will surely be involved so look for him to play well in this game.
Houston Cougars: Alton McCaskill is one player to watch here. He leads his team in rushing and in touchdowns. He will be a big part of this offense as they will likely score a lot in this game so look for him to be a part of that.

Notable Quotes

"I'm sitting here sour and very upset about a loss.” - Chance Warren after their loss to Air Force.
"We didn't do a very good job in the second half from an offensive perspective. That's one of the worst halves I've ever been a part of. I admit that; I own that; and we'll work hard on trying to fix that." - Dana Holgorsen after their loss to Texas Tech.

Starting Lineups

Navy Midshipmen
WR Walker, Mark 
WR Cooper, Mychal 
QB Arline, Xavier 
RB Warren, Chance 
RB Acie, Carlinos 
FB Harris II, James  
Houston Cougars
WR Carter, KeSean 
WR Singleton, Jeremy 
WR Dell, Nathaniel 
TE Trahan, Christian 
QB Tune, Clayton 
RB Car, Mulbah 

Statistical Leaders (Stats)

Navy Midshipmen
Passing: M. Maynor (59)
Rushing: X. Arline (107)
Receiving: M. Cooper (45)
Touchdowns: X. Arline (1)
Sacks: M. McMorris (1)
Tackles: D. Fagot (11)
Houston Cougars
Passing: C. Tune (472)
Rushing: A. McCaskill (159)
Receiving: N. Dell (301)
Touchdowns: A. McCaskill (4)
Sacks: L. Bankston (2)
Tackles: D. Mutin (11)
Navy Midshipmen: Ken Niumatalolo (15th season)
Houston Cougars: Dana Holgorsen (3rd season)

Weather Forecast

80 degrees F sunny, 47% humidity, 0% chance of rain, up to 8 mph wind speeds NE.

Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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