Navy Midshipmen vs Cincinnati Bearcats Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 01/02/2026

Game Time: 4:30 pm ET, Friday, January 2, 2026

Venue:  Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, TN 

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Navy -7, Cincinnati +7; Over/Under:  54.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Navy -7, Cincinnati +7; Over/Under:  54.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Navy -7, Cincinnati +7; Over/Under:  54.5 points

Navy Midshipmen:  10-2 (8-1) (3rd place, American)

Cincinnati Bearcats:  7-5 (5-4) (10th place, Big 12)

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Navy Midshipmen:  won their last game at a neutral site against the Army Black Knights 17-16.

Cincinnati Bearcats:  lost their last game on the road against the TCU Horned Frogs 45-23.

Navy is entering this game with a 10-2 record overall and they have an 8-1 record in their conference games too. They are 6-0 in their home games, 3-2 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, and they will be at a neutral site for this game. They won their last game against Army 17-16. Blake Horvath was the starting QB and he completed 7/14 passes for 82 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Blake Horvath led the team in rushing yards with 107 and 1 TD. Eli Heidenreich led the receivers with 72 receiving yards on 6 receptions and 1 TD. Julien Moutome led the defense in that game with 3 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Julien Moutome led the defense in sacks with 1. Phillip Hamilton came away with the only interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Cincinnati is entering this game with a 7-5 record overall and they have a 5-4 record in their conference games too. They are 5-2 in their home games, 2-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They lost their last game against TCU 45-23. Brendan Sorsby was the starting QB and he completed 23/33 passes for 282 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Brendan Sorsby led the team in rushing yards with 59. Caleb Goodie led the receivers with 67 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Matthew McDoom led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Montay Weedon led the defense in sacks with 2. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Navy listed as a 7 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Navy has looked really good in their games this season with their 10-2 record overall and their 8-1 conference record which had them right near the top of the American Conference. They are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this year. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has looked good in their games this season with their 7-5 record overall and their 5-4 conference record which had them in the top half of the Big 12. They are 0-1 in their neutral site games this season and will be playing in another here, playing in the Liberty Bowl. Cincinnati was one of the best teams in the Big 12 in the first half of the season and they looked like they were going to be a threat in the conference, but they fell apart in their last few games of the regular season. They ended up losing 3 games in a row to end the regular season, finishing with a 45-23 loss to TCU. They don't have any momentum on their side coming into this bowl game and now they will be without their starting QB too. Navy had a great season though, coming off a 17-16 win over Army in their last one which won them the Commander-In-Chief Trophy, and they were one of the best teams in their own conference all year. They weren't good enough to get into the American Championship, but they completed their real goal with that win over Army and now they have a ton of momentum coming into this final game. Navy doesn't have to deal with opt-outs either so they are in a great situation over Cincinnati who collapsed in their final few games. The best way to place a bet here is on Navy to cover the spread in this game. 

Navy Cincinnati Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Friday, January 2, 2026 (4:30 pm ET start time) is Navy 31 Cincinnati 21.

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Navy Midshipmen: 13-4 ATS in a bowl game. 34-20 ATS after a win by 6 or less points. 38-27 ATS in games played on a neutral field. 8-3 OVER when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 7-2 OVER after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins.

Cincinnati Bearcats: 1-6 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread. 6-12 ATS as an underdog. 3-12 ATS off a loss against a conference rival. 7-3 OVER as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. 6-3 OVER in non-conference games. 

Navy Midshipmen:  J. Switzer (S) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Seals (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. I. Pourciau (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. W. Miller (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Howard (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. Z. Simms (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Spelios (LB) Out - Undisclosed. B. Franklin (DL) Out - Undisclosed. T. Bradley (RB) Out - Undisclosed. A. Rose (S) Out - Undisclosed.

Cincinnati Bearcats:  M. Saboor (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed.

“I thought our guys came out in the second half and played really really well and gave us a chance to win the game.” - Brian Newberry after his team’s win against Army in their last game. 

"Over the last couple weeks, since our season is over just talking over with his family and trying to decide on what is best for his future, obviously, as all the guys throughout the country are doing that now. Whether it was pursue the NFL, which he's gotten a lot of great feedback. And then also he's had a really good year, and he's gotten reached out to by a lot of schools.” - Scott Satterfield on Sorsby.

WR Kent, Nathan

TE Norris, Jake

QB Horvath, Blake

SB Chatman, Brandon

SB Heidenreich, Eli

RB Tecza, Alex

WR Caldwell, Jeff

WR Goodie, Caleb

WR Allen, Cyrus

TE Royer, Joe

QB Lichtenberg, Brady

RB Pryor, Evan

Passing: Blake Horvath (1,472)

Rushing: Blake Horvath (1,147)

Receiving: Eli Heidenreich (877)

Touchdowns: Blake Horvath (15)

Passing: Brendan Sorsby (2,800)

Rushing: Tawee Walker (709)

Receiving: Cyrus Allen (665)

Touchdowns: Cyrus Allen (12)

Coaches:

Navy Midshipmen: Brian Newberry (3rd season)

Cincinnati Bearcats: Scott Satterfield (3rd season)