by Chuck Sommers
Sunday, Jan 16, 2022
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: Case Gym, Boston, MA
Where to watch: ESPN+
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: PK
BetMGM: PK
Caesars: PK
Season record
Navy: 11-5 (4-1 Patriot)
Boston: 11-7 (2-3 Patriot)
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Navy - Boston preview, analysis and prediction
Most books have Sunday's matchup between the Navy Midshipmen and Boston Terriers as a pick-em. When that's the case, you like to think the home team will come out on top in this matchup.
Despite Boston's recent struggles, I'm going to stick with that ideology.
Yes, I understand Boston losing three of four is not an ideal stretch, and even dating back the past three seasons the Terriers have been an awful team at home against the spread (9-21). But the reason why I’m leaning more toward Boston in this one is because they’re at home, which the Terriers have been a much better team than the 11-7 record indicates.
Even off their latest home loss, a 66-58 defeat at the hands of Loyola-Maryland on Jan. 7, the Terriers rallied after an abysmal first half. They were held to just 17 points before playing a much better final 20 minutes with 41 points. Boston just allowed too much from the first half to prevent a comeback.
Boston is coming off a 73-63 loss to Army on Thursday but we should expect the Terriers to bounce back after shooting just 39 percent from the floor in that defeat. Javonte McCoy had a game-high 23 points while Walter Whyte had 14 points on 13 shots.
Boston did enough to win that game; the biggest difference was Army made 14 more free throws and attempted 22 more for the game. There’s no way that kind of gap can happen again, especially against a Navy team that should be as even as possible.
The Midshipmen are an impressive 6-2 on the road, but I think Boston is out for revenge after losing 83-71 at Navy on Jan. 4 in which the Midshipmen were 3.5-point favorites. The fact this game is going as far as being a pick says a lot. Boston is 1-5 against the spread in their last six overall, but these Sunday games can play some tricks on folks.
I’ll take Boston in what should be a close game, and the Terriers get their revenge. Boston by 3
Betting trends
Navy is 18-5 straight up in its last 23 January games.
Navy is 10-3 straight up following five straight games of committing 14 or less turnovers.
Boston is 11-2 straight up after failing to cover five or six of its last seven against the spread.
Boston is 9-3 straight up off an upset loss as a favorite.
Boston is 7-2 straight up off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite in the last nine.
Projected starting lineup
Navy:
PG: Austin Inge
SG: Sean Yoder
SF: John Carter Jr.
PF: Tyler Nelson
C: Richard Njoku
SF: John Carter Jr.
PF: Tyler Nelson
C: Richard Njoku
Boston:
PG: Jonas Harper
SG: Javante McCoy
SF: Walter Whyte
PF: Fletcher Tynen
C: Sukhmail Mathon
SF: Walter Whyte
PF: Fletcher Tynen
C: Sukhmail Mathon
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
