by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Dec 05, 2022
Time: 3 p.m. ET
Venue: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
Where to watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Army -1
FanDuel: Army -1.5
BetMGM: NL
Caesars: Army -1
Season record
Navy: 4-7
Army: 5-6
Bowl season is here! There are 42 games that are going to be determining how this season ends. We appreciate you for hanging with us during this college football season, and you know it’s not over yet. We’re going to keep on rolling and giving your our best picks over the course of the next month. All the way up until the College Football Playoff, which is going to have some incredible games. Do you have the right idea when you head to the books for these important games? Our champion handicappers surely have you covered. Will Rogers is running an impressive 24-11-0 in the last month. Al McMordie has also been cashing in heavily with a 40-29-1 mark in college football over the last 30 days. Our guys here have you ready to go for what should be an exciting week. Be tuned to bigal.com for everything!
Army - Navy preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Navy: won 17-14 at UCF on Nov. 19
Army: won 44-7 at UMass
Nothing better to culminate the college football season than with our Army and our Navy fighting each other on a football field for yearly bragging rights. Not that the Navy Midshipmen and Army Black Knights are facing each other for bowl status, but it’s still the one time of year in Philadelphia where we see two teams run the ball 135 times and somehow clip the over because defense is optional.
Navy will be trying to win the game for the third time in four years. The Midshipmen are coming off a 17-13 win last December, and this has all the makings of that hitting again. The only difference is Army has a better record this time and can finish 6-6 with a win.
But again, this is the one game out of the year where you know exactly how the other team is going to run. Army and Navy are one-dimensional, option-filled offenses that will try to outgain the other. The best quarterback on this group right now is Tai Lavatai from Navy, who has passed for a whopping grand total of 785 yards and five touchdowns. He’s completed 46.2 percent of his passes. Running, however, is another story. He has 309 yards and five touchdowns.
Navy, however, is run by running back Daba Fofana, who averages 4.3 yards per carry and has six touchdowns. Maquel Haywood has 451 rushing yards and is carrying the rock 6.5 yards per touch.
Defensively, Navy has some serious pass rush talent that has been dominant all year. John Marshall leads the defense with 10.5 sacks and an interception. He’s not likely going to get many chances to get a sack in this game, but his 18.5 tackles for loss are also a big proponent of how big he’s been on the other side this year.
Army doesn’t have that kind of dominant presence, so it’s going to have to be the offense by committee. Tyhier Tyler leads the Army with 601 rushing yards and a team-best 12 touchdowns. Jemel Jones and Jakobi Buchanan have combined for 13 more touchdowns on the ground. Jones and Tyler have been the quarterbacks this year, but of course, not a lot of good has come out of that.
Defensively, it’s going to have to be on Leo Lowin and Marquel Broughton, the two leading tacklers on Army by a mile. Lowin has 84 tackles, five of them for a loss, and 3 sacks on the season. Broughton is the other tackling machine who has reached 78 on the year but doesn’t have a sack.
Prediction
There’s really nothing you can definitively say in this game that is going to make a major difference here. Both teams are going to run the ball, it’s going to be cold, and it’s going to take the team that wins the battle at the line of scrimmage in order for the difference to be made. Defensively, Navy has the better talent in both the pass and run game. I like that to be the difference in this one. Navy by 6
Betting trends
Navy is 202-148 ATS in all games since 1992.
Navy is 86-49 ATS in road games since 1992.
Army is 24-44 ATS off two weeks of rest since 1992.
Army is 1-11 ATS after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 since 1992.
Statistical leaders
Navy:
Passing: Tai Lavatai – 787 yards, 5 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: Daba Fofana – 749 yards, 6 TD
Receiving: Jayden Umbarger – 265 yards, 2 TD
Army:
Passing: Cade Ballard – 335 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT
Rushing: Tyhier Tyler – 601 yards, 12 TD
Receiving: Isaiah Alston – 259 yards, 1 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
