by Chuck Sommers
Wednesday, Sep 28, 2022
Time: Noon ET
Venue: Falcon Stadium, USAF Academy, CO
Where to watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Air Force -14
FanDuel: Air Force -14
BetMGM: Air Force -14
Caesars: Air Force -14
Season record
Navy: 1-2
Air Force: 3-1 (0-1 Mountain West)
What a big week and some fun shake up in the top 25, as we enter Week 5 of the college football campaign. And what a week it was for our own Wayne Root with a 7-1-0 stint to continue what has been a strong start for our champion handicappers through the early stages of this college football season. But now things are going to get interesting with conference play underway and some big-time matchups in the coming weeks. You're going to want to follow our top-notch handicappers if you want to get on this action. Make sure you visit our Best Bets page to find out more.
Navy - Air Force preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Navy: won 23-20 (2OT) at East Carolina
Air Force: won 48-20 vs. Nevada-Reno
It’s the opening leg of the Commander In Chief Trophy in college football with the Navy Midshipmen taking on the Air Force Falcons in Colorado Springs on Saturday, and let me be the one to tell you that we may need to start a prayer circle for Navy. This matchup is not going to be a fun one for the 1-2 Midshipmen. Yes, Navy is coming off a 23-20 double-overtime win over East Carolina after dropping the first two to Delaware and Memphis. Yes, long live Joe Flacco and the Blue Hens.
It’s the opening leg of the Commander In Chief Trophy in college football with the Navy Midshipmen taking on the Air Force Falcons in Colorado Springs on Saturday, and let me be the one to tell you that we may need to start a prayer circle for Navy. This matchup is not going to be a fun one for the 1-2 Midshipmen. Yes, Navy is coming off a 23-20 double-overtime win over East Carolina after dropping the first two to Delaware and Memphis. Yes, long live Joe Flacco and the Blue Hens.
But it was a good, quality win for Navy to beat East Carolina, a program known for being pesky toward the later stages of the year. Navy quarterback Tai Lavatai went 7 of 10 for 152 yards and a touchdown for a Navy offense that had just 343 total yards but held onto possession for 37 minutes. Much like all the military teams, Navy isn’t going to dominate passing the ball. Clearly there’s some efficiency when they do, but never expect the Midshipmen to actually go a full game with throwing the ball. Rushing, however, is going to be paramount for the Midshipmen. They average close to 200 rushing yards per game while spending a lot of time defending the run on defense, giving up a nice 69 yards per game. Perhaps it’s a good thing that Air Force barely throws the ball. The only thing the Midshipmen will need to worry about the daunting Air Force running attack. No pressure, right?
Welcome to the party, Air Force. After the Falcons had a horrendous showing in a loss to Wyoming, they absolutely bounced back and obliterated the Nevada-Reno Wolfpack 48-20 behind 461 rushing yards and two guys going over 100 yards. That effort was led by Brad Roberts, who ran for 123 yards on 20 carries and crossed the goal line for 3 touchdowns. Even the one touchdown pass Air Force had, caught by David Cormier, went for 80 yards in the second quarter to cap one hell of a day for the Falcons. As it stands, Air Force is 3-1 and is considered the favorites to win the Mountain West. I never thought I’d say this, but if you weren’t looking forward to the UNLV-Air Force matchup in a few weeks before, you might want to get on that if that’s going to decide the balance of power in the conference. Please stand by for the hilarity that may ensue, but who would’ve ever thought this was the direction everyone would go? Air Force hits the road for road games against Utah State and that UNLV showdown following this neutral site location.
Prediction
Air Force laying two touchdowns is a good number for this home game, and I think it’s a number worth taking in this instance. The Falcons are just that better of a team and I think you should be able to feel good about how this one turns out. Air Force by 21
Betting trends
Navy is 112-72 ATS as an underdog since 1992.
Navy is 65-30 ATS as a road underdog since 1992.
Navy is 92-51 ATS on the road since 1992.
Navy is 100-66 ATS since 1992 following a straight up victory.
Air Force is 13-7 ATS in its last 20 as a favorite.
Air Force is 6-2 ATS in its last eight against American Conference opponents.
Air Force is 50-29 ATS since 1992 after a win by 21 points or more.
Statistical leaders
Navy:
Passing: Tai Lavatai -- 386 yards, 2 TD
Rushing: Maquel Haywood -- 149 yards
Receiving: Vincent Terrell Jr. -- 147 yards, 1 TD
Air Force:
Passing: Haaziq Daniels -- 218 yards, 3 TD
Rushing: Brad Roberts -- 465 yards, 7 TD
Receiving: David Cormier -- 89 yards, 2 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
