Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/03/2026

Game Time: 6:00 pm ET, Sunday, May 3, 2026

Venue:  Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL 

Where to Watch:  TNT, HBO Max, truTV

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Canadiens +140, Lightning -166; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Canadiens +140, Lightning -165; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Canadiens +135, Lightning -165; Over/Under:  5 goals

Montreal Canadiens:  48-24-10 (3rd place, Atlantic Division)

Tampa Bay Lightning:  50-26-6 (2nd place, Atlantic Division)

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Montreal Canadiens:  5-3-2 last 10

Tampa Bay Lightning:  5-3-2 last 10

The Canadiens are entering the playoffs with 106 points, a 48-24-10 record overall, and they were 24-9-8 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Tampa Bay Lightning in their last game, losing that one at home 1-0. No one on the team scored a goal or recorded an assist for them in that one. Ivan Demidov led the team in shots on net in that game with 5. Jakub Dobeš was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 1 goal on 33 shots with 32 saves and a .970 save percentage. Their offense has scored 283 goals this season averaging 3.5 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 256 goals against them allowing 3.1 goals per game.

The Lightning are entering the playoffs with 106 points, a 50-26-6 record overall, and they were 26-14-1 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Montreal Canadiens in their last game, winning that one on the road 1-0. Gage Goncalves scored 1 goal for them in that one. Brandon Hagel and Dominic James each led the team in assists with 1 while Darren Raddysh and Nikita Kucherov each led the team in shots on net in that game with 6. Andrei Vasilevskiy was the starting goalie in that game and he recorded the shutout as he allowed 0 goals on 30 shots with 30 saves and a 1.000 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 290 goals this season averaging 3.5 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 231 goals against them allowing 2.8 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Lightning listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Canadiens have looked good in their games this season with their 48-24-10 record overall which had them in the top half of their division in the East. They have been a great road team too with their 24-9-8 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Lightning have looked good in their games this season with their 50-26-6 record overall which had them right near the top of their division in the East. They have looked great on home ice too with their 26-14-1 home record this season. This is game 7 of a 7-game series between the 2nd seeded Lightning and the 3rd seeded Canadiens in the Atlantic for the 1st round of the NHL playoffs. This series is all evened up 3-3 after the Lightning won game 6 by a score of 1-0. Every game in this series has been really tight with a majority of them going to OT, but the Lightning found a way to dig deep again and win game 6 in OT. The Lightning have been trailing at every turn in this series, but they have answered every loss with a win in the next game and now they have flipped the momentum back on their side for game 7 back at home. The Canadiens have looked really good in this series and they were rolling into the playoffs too, but they are still a younger and more inexperienced team in the playoffs. The Lightning have looked great on home ice all year with one of the best goaltenders in the entire NHL and they have that playoff experience to lean on from years of having playoff success. The Lightning are going to once again dig deep in this one and find a way to end this series on home ice. The best way to place a bet here is on the Lightning to win this game. 

Canadiens Lightning Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Sunday, May 3, 2026 (6:00 pm ET start time) is Lightning 2 Canadiens 1.

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Montreal Canadiens: 121-135 (+8.2 units) on the moneyline in all games. 73-78 (+20.4 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 to +200. 28-32 (+14.6 units) on the moneyline when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%). 5-1 UNDER in the first round of the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Lightning: 147-115 (-11.2 units) on the moneyline in all games. 5-11 (-7.6 units) on the moneyline in the first round of the playoffs. 140-109 (-9 units) on the moneyline against mistake free teams - opponents average 4 power plays/game or less. 19-8 UNDER against poor offensive teams - averaging 26.5 shots on goal per game or less.

Montreal Canadiens:  N. Dobson (D) Out - Thumb. P. Laine (RW) Out - Abdomen.

Tampa Bay Lightning:  P. Holmberg (RW) Out - Upper-Body. V. Hedman (D) Out - Personal. 

“We have to pick ourselves up and do that again. We played an excellent game. We were good. There’s no panic; we just had everyone going tonight. It’s unfortunate you don’t get the result, but what a hockey game.” - Martin St Louis after his team’s loss against the Lightning in the 6th game of this series on Friday. 

“I think we found out we’ve got the best goalie in the world. I think we already knew that, but he was incredible. I think a lot of the young guys stepped up as well, including Gage and James. I thought a lot of guys gave everything they’ve got.” - Brandon Hagel after their win against the Canadiens in game 6 of this series on Friday.

LW Cole Caufield

C Nick Suzuki

RW Juraj Slafkovský

LD Mike Matheson

RD Alexandre Carrier

G Jakub Dobes

LW Brandon Hagel

C Anthony Cirelli

RW Nikita Kucherov

LD Janis Jérôme Moser

RD Darren Raddysh

G Andrei Vasilevskiy

Points: Nick Suzuki (101)

Goals: Cole Caufield (51)

Assists: Nick Suzuki (72)

GAA: Jacob Fowler (2.43)

Points: Nikita Kucherov (130)

Goals: Nikita Kucherov (44)

Assists: Nikita Kucherov (86)

GAA: Andrei Vasilevskiy (2.31)

Coaches:

Montreal Canadiens: Martin St. Louis (5th season)

Tampa Bay Lightning: Jon Cooper (14th season)