MLB League Trends One Month In

We have one month of the Major League Baseball season in the rear view mirror. Let’s take a look at some of the overall league trends as well as team specific trends that stand out during the first month.

The over is 220-189 so far this season. Scoring has been up quite a bit thus far this season. What could be the reason for that? First, the weather has been much warmer than normal across a large portion of the country during March and April. That has led to “cold weather” locations seeing temperatures that are more like June than March/April. That can help the ball carry farther, and it can certainly be a boost to run scoring. Has the ABS challenge system led to more scoring? My guess is if so it wouldn’t be a significant difference, but this is something we will have to continue to monitor. 

I want to note that the long range forecast over a large area for the next few weeks calls for much cooler than normal temperatures, so it is certainly possible that the cooler weather we usually see in April will be here this May. Keep an eye on those weather forecasts as you place your bets in the coming weeks.

Washington Nationals (19 Overs 9 Unders 1 Tie) The Nationals young lineup has been fantastic. The Washington bullpen is one of the worst in the majors. I think these young Nationals hitters are pretty good, and I also believe this bullpen is a bottom three pen in the majors. The overs aren’t likely to keep coming at this rate, but I also don’t want to blindly start betting unders here.

Houston Astros (21 Overs 8 Unders) For a long time, the Houston Astros had a deep bullpen that was a major strength. The Astros now have the worst bullpen ERA in the majors. It isn’t a fluke either. Houston is ranked dead last in the majors by a large margin in bullpen FIP and xFIP. Houston can still hit, but these aren’t the same old Astros when it comes to pitching. 

Colorado Rockies (19 Unders 10 Overs) The Rockies aren’t good, but they are a lot better than the market expected them to be. Colorado had a win total set at 54.5. The Rockies have been very good to bettors, and it is largely thanks to their pitching staff being much better than expected. I do think the Rockies are better than the market believes even right now. Still, when the weather warms up in Denver I do expect the Coors Field thin air to lead to some higher scoring games.