MLB Home Run Derby Best Bets

Here’s a breakdown my three best bets for the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby, based on DraftKings odds and current player trends. This year’s field is stacked with raw power, but a few names stand out both in terms of value and momentum heading into the July 14th showcase in Atlanta.

Cal Raleigh (+330) enters the 2025 Derby as a co-favorite at DraftKings, and for good reason. The Mariners catcher leads all of baseball with 36 home runs and is drawing comparisons to some of the game’s most feared sluggers. He’s shown consistent power all season, with a swing built for a derby format—quick, compact, and repeatable under pressure. Raleigh’s nickname, “Big Dumper,” has become part of baseball lore this season, and he’s embraced the spotlight with charisma and clutch performance. Catchers aren’t always ideal derby picks due to the grind of the position, but Raleigh’s swing mechanics and current form make him a logical top choice, especially in a ballpark that favors pull hitters from the left side.

Oneil Cruz (+330) is tied with Raleigh as the odds-on favorite, and his ceiling might be even higher. Cruz is a Statcast darling—his max exit velocity of 122.9 mph is the highest in MLB this year, and his average home run distance sits well above league norms. The Pirates shortstop is a physical marvel at 6-foot-7 with a lightning-quick bat, and that makes him a natural threat in a power-hitting showcase like this. Though he’s a first-time Derby participant, Cruz has the kind of athleticism and explosive swing that can overwhelm in batting practice. If he settles into a rhythm early, he could easily lead all rounds in distance and volume. The concern is that his long swing could affect timing over multiple rounds, but in terms of raw talent, few can match him.

Byron Buxton (+800) may be the most intriguing longshot in the field. At 31 years old, he’s one of the older contestants, but he’s coming off a power surge that includes a 479-foot blast and the highest “no-doubter” home run percentage in the league (per ESPN). Buxton has always had elite physical tools, but this year he’s stayed healthy and channeled that into consistent power production. While age and durability might be red flags, the Derby’s short bursts of effort actually suit him well. At +800, there’s strong value in backing a player who can hit towering shots and knock out a higher seed early. If Buxton catches fire in the opening round, he could build momentum and crash the final—making him the best high-upside bet on the board.

These three picks—Raleigh for consistency, Cruz for elite upside, and Buxton for sleeper value—offer what I consider the best options if you're looking to cash in on one of baseball’s most entertaining events.