MLB Futures Betting: 2020 World Series Prediction

by ASA, Inc.

Sunday, Jun 21, 2020
Chicago Cubs +2200 (odds found at MyBookie)

We think we’re getting tremendous value with the Cubs at 22/1 to win the World Series.  After making it to the post-season 4 straight years, Chicago dropped to 3rd in the N.L. Central with an 84-78 record last year and we expect a bounce back in 2020.  They were right in the thick of the playoff race late last season but finished with only 2 wins in their last 12 games.  Poor time for a cold streak to say the least.  

Their numbers last season tell us they were better than an 84 win team.  The Chicago offense was 8th in Majors in OPS and 6th in home runs.  They also averaged just over 5 RPG which put them in the top 10.  Their pitching numbers were very solid as well ranking 7th in MLB in ERA, 10th in FIP, and 8th in runs allowed.  They struggled in close games which really played a huge part in their sub par record.  The Cubs were just 43-54 in games decided by 3 runs or less and only 19-27 in one run games.  We like them to improve drastically on those numbers this season.  The Cubs had a +0.6 RPG differential which was the 8th best in all of baseball.  To put that number in perspective, Atlanta, St Louis, and Cleveland had the exact same RPG differential as the Cubs (+0.6 per game) yet won 97, 91, and 93 games respectively compared to 84 for Chicago.  The only teams that finished with a better RPG differential in 2019 were Washington, LA Dodgers, NY Yankees, Oakland, Tampa Bay, Houston, and Minnesota.  All 10 of the teams mentioned above won more than 90 games and made the playoffs.  Chicago did neither.  We have no doubt the Cubs were better than their record last season.

Chicago’s line up basically returns intact with the exception of INF Addison Russell, who missed 40 games last season due to a suspension.  That could be addition by subtraction as Russell had a poor season hitting just .237 with an on base percentage of just .308.  The Cubs cut him in December and he is now playing in the Korean Baseball League.  The top of their line up with Bryant, Baez, Rizzo, Schwarber, Heyward, and Contreras is one of the best in the Majors.  Their starting rotation should be one of the best in the National League with Darvish, Hendricks, Quintana, and Lester.  We think the loss of Cole Hamels in free agency sounds bigger than it really is because of his name.  Hamels was just 7-7 last season and has a losing record over his last 3 seasons (25 wins and 31 losses).  

As we stated earlier we think the value with Chicago is solid here.  Last season they were 10/1 to win the World Series entering the year and now we’re getting them north of 20/1.  We’ll take the Chicago Cubs at +2200 to win it all this year.  

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