MLB Early Season MVP Value

by ASA, Inc.

Tuesday, May 09, 2023
It's hard to believe we are already almost a quarter done with the MLB season. All future bets are still wide open, but a few MLB players have set themselves up to have a great season so far. Looking at last year's MVP’s, Aaron Judge and Paul Goldschmidt, both finished last season with at least 115 RBI’s, hit over .310, and had an OBP of .400+. The only other players that were close in those categories were Yordan Alvarez and Freddie Freeman who both finished top four in voting. It is not an exact science, but using those metrics, we will show who is currently undervalued for the rest of 2023. 

American League
Randy Arozarena (+3500)  
Tampa Bay has been the best team in baseball this season and it is due in large part to their emerging star. Arozarena is fourth in the AL with 30 RBI’s, he is hitting .328, and his OBP is .400. He is currently 10th in AL MVP odds which seems grossly low considering how well the Rays are doing and how popular Randy is becoming. At 29-7, Tampa Bay surely cannot keep up their current pace, but an AL East crown will allow Arozarena to be in the MVP conversation come year end. 

Brent Rooker (+20000)
Rooker is a name even hardcore baseball fans probably are not familiar with, yet MLB is so heavily based in statistics that he is our “Moneyball” value pick that would make Billy Beane proud. Rooker is seventh in the AL with 26 RBI’s, he is hitting .319, and his OBP is .441. The A’s Left Fielder currently leads all of baseball in slugging percentage as well at nearly .700. One major downside is Oakland has the worst record in baseball, yet they have made historic turnarounds in the past. 

National League 
Sean Murphy (+4000)
Atlanta has a host of MVP candidates including Ronald Acuna, Matt Olson, and Austin Riley, all which have led them to the second best record in baseball. While all those players have higher odds to win MVP, the one with the best value is Sean Murphy. Murphy is leading the team with 28 RBI’s, hitting .282, and has a OBP of .426. The NL MVP has no clear front runners as of yet but Acuna is the favorite. Watch out for Murphy to outproduce Acuna mainly in RBI’s which could check all the boxes for MVP voters. 

Nick Castellanos (+9000)
The Phillies Right Fielder is the only player within the top 15 of the AL RBI leaders to be hitting over .300. He has 22 RBI’s, is hitting .304, and has a OBP of .356. Castellanos will need to pick it up in the HR category but has shown the ability to hit the long ball when he had 34 in 2021. In the NL it is difficult to find players that are on pace to match what Goldschmidt did last year, but Castellanos has shown the consistency to put together solid statistical years, and is on pace to do so again in 2023.  

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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