Teams To Fade
Giants - Through 79 games, San Francisco is +22.1 units. That’s way out in front of everybody else. No team has finished up that many units in three of the past four seasons. In a division with the Dodgers and Padres, the second half schedule won’t be easy.
Red Sox - Boston is second at +14.5 units. We didn’t expect to see them leading the AL East entering July. They are 14-7 in one run games and 10-2 in interleague play. More importantly, they are 21-10 in division games. We don’t think any of those win percentages can be maintained.
Mariners - The M’s are +13.6 units. They have a winning record. But only two American League teams have scored fewer runs. No one has been better in extra inning games (7-1), which seems to be more about luck.
Team to Bet
Astros - Houston has a run differential of +130. There’s only one other team with a run differential better than +100. Only three others are higher than +75. As of now, the Astros are only +2.1 units. They are likely to have a higher win percentage in the second half of the season.
Team to Bet (Over)
Orioles - Despite giving up 5.5 runs/game, which is the most in the American League, Baltimore has gone Over in only half their games. The pitching isn’t going to get any better.
Team to Bet (Under)
Pirates - This team scores less than any other in baseball (3.5 runs/game).
Pitcher to Bet On
Cole (NYY) - He’s -9.8 units, which is last among all starters. But he has a 2.66 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. His team start record is 8-8. He’s likely to win more than he loses moving forward.
Pitcher to Fade
Rodriguez (BOS) - He’s +4.8 units with a 10-5 TSR. But he has a 5.83 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Those numbers aren’t indicative of a pitcher that should be coming out ahead in two-thirds of his starts.