MLB Baseball: Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/12/2021

by James Q

MLB Baseball: Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/12/2021

Game Time: 1:05 pm ET, Sunday, September 12th, 2021
 Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Where to Watch: MASN, SNET, SNET-1

Opening MLB Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings: moneyline: Blue Jays -210, Orioles +175 Over/Under: 10.5 runs 
VegasInsider: moneyline: Blue Jays -210, Orioles +175 Over/Under: 10.5 runs

Season Record

Blue Jays: 77-63 (4th place, AL East)
Orioles:  46-94  (5th place, AL East)

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Blue Jays vs Orioles Preview and Analysis

Recent Form

The American League East has been super tight in the race for 2nd place.  The Blue Jays did themselves no favors by dropping the first game of this weekend series Friday Night.  It was a contentious game with some angry shouting and posturing by the Blue Jays pitcher Robbie Ray toward Orioles manager Brandon Hyde.  The result that the Orioles beat the Blue Jays 6-3 undoes some of the great momentum the Blue jays had built sweeping a four-game series against the New York Yankees.  They were poised to jump into third place and start making the Boston Red Sox nervous about 2nd place.  They forgot the Mantra of winners everywhere “keep your head in the game”.   They are now 8-2 over their last ten games, having gone 4-1 against Baltimore, 4-0 against the Yankees, and now 0-1 against Baltimore.  They have a couple more road games against Baltimore with a Saturday doubleheader to regain form before they hit Sunday’s (our game) first pitch.  The logged 3 Overs, 6 Unders, and 1 Push in that span.  

The Orioles broke the Blue Jays 8 game winning streak. Also they stopped the combined 8 game streak of going Under by hitting a Push.  They are now 6-4 over their last ten games.  Notching 2 Overs, 7 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are down 3 quality pitchers to the injured list.  They are likely going forward with a weak bullpen.  A terrible reality against a powerful Toronto lineup.  Hopefully they can rattle more Blue Jay pitchers.

Offensive Analysis 

The Toronto Blue Jays are 1st in OPS .787, 2nd in team batting average .269, 1st in slugging .457, 1st in home runs 217, 3rd in RBI’s 716,  3rd in Hits, 4th in runs scored.  I could go on and on.  They are a great hitting team who are in rarefied air with the Tampa Bay Rays, Houston Astros, and Los Angeles Dodgers.  They hit, they hit for power, they have a star in Vladimir Guerrero Jr, but everyone else is hitting too!  This team would be much better in the standings if they had 1 more ACE on the pitching staff or an amazing closer to bring games home.  This is why the Orioles can get 1 win, once in a while, but will ultimately drop the rest of the series.

The Baltimore Orioles are 18th in team batting average .240, 25th in runs scored 581, 18th in home runs 170. They have little firepower.  Among the hitters Cedric Mullins is the best, followed closely by Ryan Mountcastle.  They will be on vacation after the next 20 games or so.

Defensive Analysis

The Blue Jays are 10th in team ERA 3.83, 13th in strikeouts 1266, 11th in WHIP 1.24.  They are a team that should be higher in the standings.  They seem to be making a move in that direction. All the pitching numbers are above average, all the batting numbers are through the roof.  They may just be a victim of a regular season schedule that has them lumped in with so many teams in the AL East capable of making a postseason push.  They are coming strong.

The Orioles are LAST (30th) in team ERA 5.72, 27th in strikeouts 1104, LAST (30th) in WHIP.  They usually don’t have much on the mound.  This is the time of year team’s in Baltimore’s position audition guys for next year.  A lot of starters with only 10-20 innings of major league pitching experience because they just got called up.  

Blue Jays vs Orioles Prediction

Our prediction for Sunday, September 12th is…. Blue Jays 6 - Orioles 3

These two teams have combined for 8 Unders and 1 Push in a streak of no Overs.  Take the Under.

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MLB Betting Trends

Baltimore is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Baltimore is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games at home
Toronto is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Toronto is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games when playing Baltimore

Key Injuries

Blue Jays:  George Springer CF (knee) Day to Day
Orioles: Ramon Urias SS (leg) Day to Day.  Matt Harvey SP (knee) 10 Day-IL

Players to Watch

The Blue jays will start Steven Matz 11-7, 3.70 ERA, 122 strikeouts in 129 innings of work.  “Matzy” got a win while pitching 6 innings with 6 strikeouts in his last start on 9/7 against the Yankees.

Orioles:  Cedric Mullins.  The Orioles are giving Cedric a day of rest on Saturday.  He will miss the doubleheader and come back to this game refreshed.  He is the best thing they have going on offense.

Notable Quotes

"For the last two weeks, we have been playing better baseball, being aggressive, being competitive,....We're aiming to finish the season strong." Anthony Santander, Baltimore Oriole.  
"I felt really good coming into this game,.... The ball was coming out really well. They just battled." - Robbie Ray, he was upset with Brandon Hyde and got rattled.

Starting Lineups

Bo Bichette, SS
Marcus Semien, 2B
V. Guerrero Jr., 1B
T. Hernandez, LF
A. Kirk, DH
L. Gurriel Jr., LF
R. Grichuk, RF
D. Jansen, C
K. Smith, 3B
Jose Berrios, SP
C. Mullins, CF
R. Mountcastle, 1B
A. Santander, RF
T. Mancini, DH
D. Stewart, LF
P. Severino, C
J. Mateo, SS
J. Jones, 2B
K. Gutierrez, 3B
J. Means, SP

Statistical Leaders

Blue Jays:
Home Runs:  Vlad Guerrero Jr -42
Hits: Vlad Guerrero JR  -165
RBI:  Vlad Guerrero Jr  -100
ERA:  Robbie Ray  -2.60
Strikeouts: Robbie Ray  -212
Wins: Hyun Jin Ryu  -13
Home Runs: Cedric Mullins  -27
Hits:  Cedric Mullins  -159
RBI:  Ryan Mountcastle  -77
ERA: John Means  -.342
Strikeouts: John Means  -114
Wins: Matt Harvey  -6


Blue Jays:  Charlie Montoya

Orioles: Brandon Hyde 


Weather Forecast 

Sunny.  High 0f 91* Humidity of 50%. Hot and humid.


James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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