MLB Baseball: Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/11/2021

by James Q

MLB Baseball: Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/11/2021

Game Time: 4:07 pm ET, Saturday, September 11th, 2021 
Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Where to Watch: MASN, SNET

Opening MLB Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings: moneyline: Toronto -235, Baltimore +190; Over/Under: 8.5 runs
VegasInsider: moneyline: Toronto -155, Baltimore +135; Over/Under: 9 runs

Season Record

Blue Jays:  77-62 (4th AL East) (1 game out of third place, 3 games out of second)
Orioles:  45-94 (5th AL East) (22 games behind 4th.  It’s mathematically over and has been)

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Orioles vs Blue Jays Preview and Analysis

Recent Form

Toronto is 9-1 over their last ten games.  Logging 4 Overs and 6 Unders. They went 2-1 against the Baltimore Orioles, SWEPT Oakland Athletics 3-0, and SWEPT the New York Yankees 4-0 in Yankee Stadium.  In a four-game series where the Blue Jays never trailed! Demonstrative, chest pounding, season changing. 

Baltimore is 5-5 over their last ten games.  Hitting 3 Overs and 7 Unders.  A low scoring streak during ten games but a better win percentage than they’ve been this season.  They went 1-2 against the Blue Jays ( To end August), 2-1 against the Yankees (to really push the drama in the AL East), and 2-2 against the Kansas City Royals.  They got two wins out of Keegan Akin during that stretch and 1 each from Alexander Wells, Matt Harvey, and Chris Ellis. 

Offensive Analysis 

The Blue Jays are 2nd in team batting average .294, 4th in runs scored 710, 1st in home runs 217.  They can hit. They really can. We can go on and on about them offensively: 3rd in RBI, 5th in doubles, etc.  The one weakness is in BB.  That’s right they are only 20th in walks because they smack the ball or go down swinging. 

At times the Orioles offense looks like the Cedric Mullins show.  He leads the team in practically every batting category and he has done real well against the Blue Jays this year.  5 homers, 11 RBI’s, and a jaw dropping 1.065 OPS.  In the 8 games played in September he already has 6 RBI’s…. Of course it is the rest of the line-up that gives us these numbers:  18th in team batting average .239, 25th in runs scored, 17th in home runs 167 (if you took out best player Cedric Mullins they are in Arizona Diamondback territory).

Defensive Analysis

The Blue Jays’ Pitchers are 10th in ERA 3.83, 13 in strikeouts 1256, 10th in WHIP 1.23.  They are a strong opening hand that needs an ACE on the flop to go all in.  This team would be at the top of the league if these averages could be pumped up by just one more strong SP. Hyun Jin Ryu has been fun to watch all season and Robbie Ray.  If they get edged out of the postseason in this year’s crowded field, their first off-season priority should be to find that guy.  Steven Matz is a good #3 but he’d be much better as a #4 in the rotation.

The Orioles pitchers are a work in progress.  An experiment really.  They are dead last, 30th, in team ERA 5.75, 27th in strikeouts 1096, and dead last again, 30th, in WHIP 1.47.  They have been calling guys up from the minors and taking long looks at them on the mound.  They have a few pitchers on the injured list that is really a wait until next year list.  This is exactly the rotation you do not want throwing to Vlad Guerrero jr. and his lineup whether the new young guy is a right-hander or not.

Orioles vs Blue Jays Prediction

This is a make-up game from July 8th.  That really plays into the Blue Jays advantage. Back in July the Blue Jays were not as close as they are now and might not have played with the sense of urgency they are playing with today.  They are bottled up with The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox in a 20 game sprint towards the regular season finale.  The AL East is ultra competitive and fosters games of pure raw emotion for the fans.  It’s a great time to be a baseball fanatic. 

Our prediction for Saturday, September 11th is Blue Jays 7 - Orioles 2

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MLB Betting Trends

Toronto is 76-58-4 O/U on the season. 
Toronto’s road record is 43-26, Day games are 38-15.
Toronto’s O/U on the road is 41-25-2.
Baltimore is 68-64-5 O/U on the season.  
Baltimore's Home record is 21-46, Day games 14-39.
Baltimore’s O/U at home is 37-27-2.

Key Injuries

Blue Jays:  George Springer CF (knee) Day to Day
Orioles: Ramon Urias SS (leg) Day to Day.  Matt Harvey SP (knee) 10 Day-IL

Players to Watch

Toronto:  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.  He is an electric hitter that expresses every emotion.  If you are going to watch a Blue Jays Vs Orioles game and you miss a Vlad at bat… you wasted your entire late afternoon.

Baltimore:  Cedric Mullins.  Cedric is nearly all of what Baltimore has to offer.  He’s not quite Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim… but his pro swings are beginning to feel just as wasted.  He needs to be batting for a contender.  Moving Cedric could also bring back the desperately needed pitching prospects.

"They never complain, and that's why we're in this spot right now,...It's been impressive what our team has done. I'm so proud of our team, it's a happy night for us.'' - Jays manager Charlie Montoya after last win vs Yankees.

Notable Quotes

"They never complain, and that's why we're in this spot right now,...It's been impressive what our team has done. I'm so proud of our team, it's a happy night for us.'' - Jays manager Charlie Montoya after last win vs Yankees.

“Are you telling me the Blue Jays could jump from fourth place to second place if they win two straight and Boston loses two straight at the same time?”  - Drunken Red Sox fan, a second before he threw a punch at a wall. 

"I was just frustrated I couldn't get through that eighth,....I've got to be able to go out and finish — my pitch count's not very high — and I wasn't able to do that. That's the only negative thing that I really have."  - John Means, Orioles pitcher, who allowed 2 runs and five hits before getting yanked in the seventh.  (of last loss to Kansas City)

Starting Lineups

Toronto:  (Thursday) 
Bo Bichette, SS
Marcus Semien, 2B
V. Guerrero Jr., 1B
T. Hernandez, LF
A. Kirk, DH
L. Gurriel Jr., LF
R. Grichuk, RF
D. Jansen, C
K. Smith, 3B
Jose Berrios, SP

Baltimore: (Thursday)
C. Mullins, CF
R. Mountcastle, 1B
A. Santander, RF
T. Mancini, DH
D. Stewart, LF
P. Severino, C
J. Mateo, SS
J. Jones, 2B
K. Gutierrez, 3B
J. Means, SP

Statistical Leaders

Blue Jays:
Home Runs:  Vlad Guerrero Jr -42
Hits: Vlad Guerrero JR  -165
RBI:  Vlad Guerrero Jr  -100
ERA:  Robbie Ray  -2.60
Strikeouts: Robbie Ray  -212
Wins: Hyun Jin Ryu  -13

Home Runs: Cedric Mullins  -27
Hits:  Cedric Mullins  -159
RBI:  Ryan Mountcastle  -77
ERA: John Means  -.342
Strikeouts: John Means  -114
Wins: Matt Harvey  -6


Blue Jays:  Charlie Montoya, since 2019 and going strong.
Orioles: Brandon Hyde, On very thin ice and not under contract for 2022.  Of course firing Brandon would make GM Elias look silly after he hand-picked him.  Of course if you don’t offer a 2022 contract… then are you really firing someone?

Weather Forecast 

Mostly Sunny.  10% chance of light precipitation.  High of 83*. Wind at 9 mph.  If you are in Baltimore for the game, or any reason… try the crabs.


James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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