MLB Baseball: San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets Preview, Prediction & Odds - 8/26/21

by Chuck Sommers

Wednesday, Aug 25, 2021
Game time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Venue: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
Where to watch: NBCS BA, SNY

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings: Giants -130, Mets +110
FanDuel: NL

Season record (entering Wednesday)
Giants: 81-44 (1st place, NL West)
Mets: 61-64 (3rd place, NL East)

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Giants - Mets preview and analysis

Recent form
Giants: 7-3 in last 10, won 3 straight
Mets: 2-8 in last 10

It’s the San Francisco Giants’ world and we’re all just paying rent.

If there was any doubt on who the best team in the league is at the moment, the Giants have since laid that to rest. Winning two of three, on the “road” against the Oakland Athletics, the Giants have withstood the rally from the Los Angeles Dodgers.

There’s still time to go for the Dodgers to make a move, but that’s not on the docket right now. The Giants will wrap up their three-game series against the New York Mets at Citi Field on Thursday, looking to keep the momentum going from the series-opening victory on Tuesday.

San Francisco kicked off the series with a dominant 8-0 victory for their 81st win of the season. The Giants got three home runs from Brandon Belt (3 RBI), Lamonte Wade Jr. (2 RBI) and Mike Yastrzemski (2 RBI), rocking Mets starter Tylor Megill (3.2 IP, 7 ER, 11 hits allowed).

The best way to describe the Giants is ‘methodical.’ It continues to be finding different ways to make teams look foolish. They could get a dominant pitching outing one night, a solid night like they did from Sammy Long (5.1 IP, 3 H), or get to teams with the bats.

That’s what makes them dangerous, and that’s why they’re in the driver’s seat right now. Alex Wood is expected to take the mound for the Giants; the southpaw has a 10-4 record with a 4.11 ERA on the season.

The Mets lost for the ninth time in 11 games Tuesday and their freefall in the National League East continues. In the span of 12 days, the Mets have gone from down a half-game from first place to now trailing the Atlanta Braves by 6.5 games entering Wednesday.

Carlos Carassco is expected to start for the Mets, as the right-hander continues in search of his first win with the Mets. In five starts, he’s 0-2 with a 8.82 ERA.

Offensive analysis

The Giants are the following: Ninth in batting (.247), first in home runs (191), ninth in RBI (585) and fifth in OPS (.765). It’s absurd how good they are.

If the Mets are going to make a run at some point this season, it needs to come from the plate. They got Javier Baez and Francisco Lindor back from the IL, but when Pete Alonso is your top hitter at .260, there’s a hex placed at Citi Field. The Mets are the fifth-worst batting team in the league (.234).

Defensive analysis

There’s only one team better than the Giants in terms of pitching -- their rivals from Southern California. The Dodgers are nearing a combined ERA under 3.00. The Giants are right there at 3.27. The combination of Kevin Gausman, Logan Webb and Alex Wood has made that one of the most dangerous pitching staff in the league. Johnny Cueto is also a terrific fourth option. 

The Mets have greatly suffered without Jacob deGrom, but Marcus Stroman has been great in his ace spot. The Mets have been a top-10 staff this season based, solely, on deGrom’s performance. But Stroman is worth the money right now. Get a healthy deGrom and see what this staff can do. Taijuan Walker has been great, too.


Just too much going on with the Giants now. Take them while they’re hot. Giants win 8-3.

Betting trends

The Giants are 46-20 (+22.2) when the total is 8 to 8.5.

The Mets are 14-25 (-15.4) against left-handed pitchers and 40-62 in the last 102 matchups.

Players to watch

Giants: Ever since Brandon Crawford signed his two-year extension earlier in August, he’s turned it up a notch. Batting .296 on Aug. 13, the All-Star is now batting .300 with three multi-hit games.

Mets: Pete Alonso has carried the Mets’ offense as best he can. He entered Wednesday on a nine-game hitting streak. He’s batting .339 in the last 14 games with four home runs and 10 RBI.

Projected lineup

LaMonte Wade Jr. (L) RF
Brandon Belt (L) 1B
Buster Posey (R) C
Alex Dickerson (L) LF
Brandon Crawford (L) SS
Wilmer Flores (R) 3B
Mike Yastrzemski (L) CF
Tommy La Stella (L) 2B
Alex Wood (L) P

Brandon Nimmo (L) CF
Pete Alonso (R) 1B
Francisco Lindor (S) SS
Javier Baez (R) 2B
Michael Conforto (L) RF
J.D. Davis (R) 3B
Jeff McNeil (L) LF
Patrick Mazeika (L) C
Carlos Carrasco (R) P

Statistical leaders

Batting average: Brandon Crawford (.300)
Hits: Brandon Crawford (108)
Home runs: Kris Bryant (22)
RBI: Brandon Crawford (71)
Stolen bases: Brandon Crawford & Austin Slater (10)
Wins: Kevin Gausman (12)
Saves: Jake McGee (28)
ERA: Kevin Gausman (2.47)

Batting average: Pete Alonso (.260)
Hits: Pete Alonso (109)
Home runs: Pete Alonso (28)
RBI: Pete Alonso (73)
Stolen bases: Jonathan Villar (10)
Wins: Marcus Stroman (9)
Saves: Edwin Diaz (25)
ERA: Marcus Stroman (2.85)

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Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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