MLB Baseball: Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Preview, Prediction & Odds -- Sept. 19, 2021

by Chuck Sommers

Game time: 7:08 p.m. ET
Venue: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
Where to watch: ESPN

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Phillies -115, Mets -105
BetMGM: NL
Caesars: NL

Season record (entering Saturday)
Phillies: 75-72 (2nd place, NL East)
Mets: 72-76 (3rd place, NL East)

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Phillies - Mets preview and analysis


Recent form (entering Saturday)
Phillies: won 3 straight
Mets: lost 4 straight

Here come the Philadelphia Phillies and there go the New York Mets.

The Phillies are making a late push for the National League East title and trail the Atlanta Braves by only two games for first place. 

Meanwhile, after taking two of three against the New York Yankees in the Subway Series, the Mets are now six back of the Braves and falling out of favor.

The Phillies and Mets will wrap up their three-game series in New York on Sunday Night Baseball in what could be the Mets’ last chance at making a run.

Atlanta has lost three straight to put the division race wide open once again. The Phillies have responded with wins over the Chicago Cubs (two at Citizens Bank Park) and the Mets, 4-3 in the opener on Friday. Despite losing six of seven in a stretch that started Sept. 7, the Phillies have gone from 4.5 games back to 2 games in a matter of days.

The Phillies got a great outing from ace Zack Wheeler (5 IP, 1 ER, 6 strikeouts) and needed only seven hits to win on Friday. Taijuan Walker allowed two runs in five innings of work, but didn’t get enough run support.

There’s still a chance the Mets can find their way back with the second wild card spot, but much like the division, they’re six games back of the St. Louis Cardinals. Yes, the team that just swept the Mets at Citi Field this week.

Kyle Gibson will be the starter in the Sunday finale for the Phillies, opposing Rich Hill for the Mets. Gibson is 10-7 with a 3.49 ERA with a WHIP of 1.23. Hill, however, is 6-7 with a 3.88 ERA this season.

Prediction


While the Mets’ recent run has been admirable and a true definition of September baseball, playoff implications are on the line and the best bet is to take the team that has defied all expectations. The Phillies have the better bullpen and better rotation to get big wins under their belt. The winning streak, pending Saturday’s game, will continue. Phillies win 6-4

Betting trends


The Phillies are 15-9 in Sunday games this season.

Teams are 6-4 when Hill starts this season.

Players to watch


Phillies: If there’s any doubt left on who wins NL MVP, it might not matter if the Phillies make the playoffs. Bryce Harper is batting .418 with 10 homers and 25 RBI in his last 22 games. As Vince Carter would say, it’s over.

Mets: It’s taken a bit, but Javy Baez has been all the Mets could’ve asked for. In his psat 15 games, Baez is batting .426 with an on-base percentage of .516. He has five home runs and 11 RBI.

Projected lineup


Phillies:
Odubel Herrera (L) CF
Jean Segura (R) 2B
Bryce Harper (L) RF
J.T. Realmuto (R) C
Didi Gregorius (L) SS
Freddy Galvis (S) 3B
Brad Miller (L) 1B
Matt Vierling (R) LF
Kyle Gibson (R) P

Mets:
Jonathan Villar (S) 3B
Brandon Nimmo (L) CF
Francisco Lindor (S) SS
Pete Alonso (R) 1B
Michael Conforto (L) RF
Javier Baez (R) 2B
Jeff McNeil (L) LF
James McCann (R) C
Rich Hill (L) P

Probable starting pitchers: Gibson (PHI) vs. Hill (NYM)

Statistical leaders


Phillies:
Batting average: Bryce Harper (.313)
Hits: Jean Segura (139)
Home runs: Bryce Harper (33)
RBI: Bryce Harper (77)
Stolen bases: Bryce Harper (13)
Wins: Zack Wheeler (14)
Saves: Hector Neris (12)
ERA: Zack Wheeler (2.83)

Mets:
Batting average: Pete Alonso (.260)
Hits: Pete Alonso (133)
Home runs: Pete Alonso (33)
RBI: Pete Alonso (87)
Stolen bases: Javier Baez (17)
Wins: Marcus Stroman (9)
Saves: Edwin Diaz (29)
ERA: Marcus Stroman (2.88)

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Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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