MLB Baseball: Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Preview, Prediction & Odds - Sept. 11, 2021

by Chuck Sommers

Game time: 7:20 p.m. ET
Venue: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Where to watch: Bally Sports Florida, Bally Sports Southeast

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings: Braves -210, Marlins +175
Caesars: NL

Season record (entering Friday)
Marlins: 59-81 (4th place, NL East)
Braves: 74-65 (1st place, NL East)

Larry Ness is caught in a 3-day MLB slump (just 2-6) but this 38-year vet has not slumped very often. He's gone 159-116, +$27,417 with all plays since May 15 (4-month span) and checks in having earned a profit of $23,690 (at $100/unit) since Opening Day. His 3-game Friday card is highlighted by this 10* Division Game of the Month. Catch Larry’s and other plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.

Marlins - Braves preview and analysis

Recent form
Marlins: 6-4 in last 10
Braves: 4-6 in last 10

The collective flames surrounding the Atlanta Braves have somewhat gone away since that nine-game winning streak.

But the Braves still have October aspirations leading the National League East by a few games. They’ll try to keep that lead intact, with a good chance of increasing said lead, when facing the Miami Marlins in Game 2 of the three-game set.

Atlanta enters Friday winners of three of its last four, recently taking two of three over the Washington Nationals at home. This is in the middle of a nine-game homestand which will carry the Braves into next week.

The Braves have, in fact, slipped up in the NL East. Atlanta enters Friday with a 3.5-game lead on the Philadelphia Phillies, with the New York Mets not that far back at five games with 23 games to go. This race will get tighter as the season goes on; Atlanta still has to travel to San Diego and San Francisco for some crucial games.

Charlie Morton will get the start for Atlanta on Saturday, putting his 13-5 record up against Marline starter Elieser Hernandez. The right-hander is 1-1 with a 3.90 ERA to this point, and will be tasked (like many of the other Marlins players) to avoid a last-place finish in the NL East.

They don’t hang banners for that, but it’s been such a dread at loanDepot park that you do anything to make the fans happy. Finishing in not-last place is a good start for that ballpark.

Hernandez is coming off a solid performance against the Phillies on Sunday (5 IP, 3 ER, 6 K, 1 BB), but the Marlins lost 4-3 in 10 innings.

The pitchers will follow Trevor Rogers (MIA) and Ian Anderson (ATL) on Friday.


The last time Atlanta played Miami, fireworks went off at the Marlins’ park. Don’t be shocked to see that happen again with Morton mowing down the Miami offense all while Atlanta goes off. Braves win 9-2.

Betting trends

The Marlins are 12-26 when an underdog of +150 or more during the regular season.

The Braves are 9-5 (-0.8 net games on the moneyline) in Morton’s starts this season when they’re a favorite of -150 or more.

Players to watch

Marlins: Miami’s offense has struggled heavily, but the Marlins could use something from Jazz Chisholm. He’s only batting .206 since Aug. 20, but the Marlins are 8-9 in that stretch. It could be better if he gets that average up.

Braves: The last time Freddie Freeman faced the Marlins, he hit for the cycle and put on a show. Since then, Freeman has hit .239 with only two homers and four RBI. The Braves could use a big weekend from their MVP.

Projected lineup

Miguel Rojas (R) SS
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 2B
Bryan De La Cruz (R) LF
Jesus Sanchez (L) RF
Lewin Diaz (L) 1B
Sandy Leon (S) C
Isan Diaz (L) 3B
Magneuris Sierra (L) CF
Elieser Hernandez (R) P

Ozzie Albies (S) 2B
Jorge Soler (R) RF
Freddie Freeman (L) 1B
Austin Riley (R) 3B
Adam Duvall (R) LF
Travis d'Arnaud (R) C
Orlando Arcia (R) SS
Guillermo Heredia (R) CF
Charlie Morton (R) P

Statistical leaders

Batting average: Miguel Rojas (.273)
Hits: Miguel Rojas (118)
Home runs: Jesus Aguilar (22)
RBI: Jesus Aguilar (93)
Stolen bases: Jazz Chisholm Jr. (19)
Wins: Sandy Alcantara (8)
Saves: Dylan Floro (9)
ERA: Sandy Alcantara (3.24)

Batting average: Austin Riley (.301)
Hits: Freddie Freeman (152)
Home runs: Freddie Freeman (29)
RBI: Ozzie Albies (93)
Stolen bases:
Wins: Charlie Morton (13)
Saves: Will Smith (31)
ERA: Charlie Morton (3.47)

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Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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