MLB Baseball: Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/12/2021

by James Q


MLB Baseball: Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/12/2021




Opening MLB Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Moneyline: Twins -165, Royals +145; Over/Under: 9 runs 
BetMGM:  Moneyline: Twins -160, Royals +150; Over/Under: 9 runs 
PointsBet:  Moneyline: Twins -160, Royals +150; Over/Under: 9 runs

Season Record

Royals: 64-77 ( 4th place, AL Central)
Twins: 62-79  (5th place AL Central)

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Royals vs Twins Preview and Analysis

 

Recent Form


The Royals are 5-5 over their last ten games.  They logged 3 Overs and 7 Unders.  They opened this series Friday with a win over the Twins 6-4 and an Over, before that they went 2-2 against the Baltimore Orioles, 2-1 against the Chicago White Sox, 0-2 against the Cleveland Indians.  This team is hard to figure out.  They lose two to the Indians and then win 2 off the White Sox.  I know, technically the Indians are in 2nd place in the AL Central… but the White Sox are literally the only good team.

The Twins are 4-6 over their last ten games.  Hitting 3 Over and 7 Under. Combined these two teams have 14 Unders in their last 20.    The Twins went 0-1 to Kansas City, 3-1 against the Cleveland Indians, 1-2 against the Tampa Bay Rays, 0-2 against the Chicago Cubs.  

Offensive Analysis 

The Royals are 10th in team batting average .244, 23rd in runs scored 595, 27th in home runs 147, and 30th (last) in BB 366.  They have some hitters in Whit Merrifield and Nicky Lopez , but just not enough.  To be 10th in hits doesn’t mean they are the tenth best hitting team.  They are last in walks.  They are flat out swinging too much, possibly out of career desperation. 

The Twins are 16th in team batting average .241, 16th in runs scored 635, 4th in home runs 200.  The Twins are average hitters that have some big bats capable of driving the long ball.  Even as we go further into the statline we find more average 15th in BB, 17th in RBI, 16th in strikeouts.  In a 30 team league this is a buffet of average.  It’s average coming at all angles.  Except for those 200 home runs… those are for fun.  

Defensive Analysis


The Royals will start lefty Kris Bubic 4-6, 5.07 ERA, 95 strikeouts in 104.2 IP, 1.52 WHIP.  Kris’s last 7 games have been tough giving up 33 hits, 21 earned runs, 17 BB.  In fact the more often Kris pitches the larger his ERA goes.  Expect the bullpen to relieve this starter early.  It’s one thing to pitch for an underdog but this guy will get the Twins home fans cheering the Twins offense.  The Royals have a team ERA of 4.64 21st in the league.

The Twins will put right-handed pitcher Bailey Ober on the mound 2-2 4.00 ERA, 81 Strikeouts in 78 innings pitched, 1.22 WHIP.  The 26 year old made his Major League debut in May.  His last 7 games have been a joy.  His ERA hit 2.55 and his WHIP dipped to 1.16.  He is getting more confident with each outing.  The 12th round 346th pick in 2017 is making a case that he belongs in the American League.  The Twins have a team ERA of 4.89 for 27th.  This is the time of year where most of  the starting pitchers are relievers that are being given a chance to prove themselves winners. 

Royals vs Twins Prediction


Both these clubs have given up the sprint and settled into the marathon of building a squad for the next regular season.  The Under is still a safe bet here.  

Our prediction for Sunday September 12th is Twins 4 -  Royals 3

 

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MLB Betting Trends

The Royals are 30-42 on the moneyline in road games.
The Royals are 27-31 on the moneyline in day games
The Royals have hit 28-39-5 O/U on the road

The Twins are 32-37 on the moneyline in home games.
The Twins are 38-34 on the moneyline in day games.
The Twins are 35-31-3  O/U in home games.

Key Injuries

Royals:  Cam Gallagher  C  10 Day IL,  Jacob Junis  SP  10 Day IL
Twins:  Mitch Garver C  10 Day IL,  Taylor Rogers  RP  10 Day IL

Players to Watch

Royals:  Nicky Lopez.  Though not a home run hitter, 26 year old Nicky has stolen 19 bases .  He's a pretty good base runner.  Plus as a SS he’ll have to be compared to Jorge Polanco all series.

Twins:  Jorge Polanco.  Jorge has 27 HR and 83 RBI.  The 28 year old shortstop at times seems to be the Twins whole show.  Batting and fielding, both at high levels.

Notable Quotes


"I don't know. I've always liked playing here,...I feel like I see the ball well. It's about all I can come up with." -Andrew Benintendi, Kansas City Royal, had 4 hits, with 2 home runs in the 11 inning Friday win over the Twins.

"We didn't string together the types of at-bats we did in the first inning, certainly as the game went on,.... We're going to have score more than the four runs we put on the board early."  - Twins Manager, Roccoo Baldelli

Starting Lineups

Royals
W. Merrifield, 2B
N. Lopez, SS
S. Perez, DH
A. Benintendi, LF
C. Santana, 1B
A. Mondesi, 3B
M. Taylor, CF
H. Dozier, RF
S. Rivero, C
D. Lynch, SP
 
Twins:
B. Buxton, CF
J. Polanco, 2B
R. Refsnyder, LF
J. Donaldson, 3B
M. Sano, 1B
B. Rooker, DH
M. Kepler, RF
R. Jeffers, C
A. Simmons, SS
G. Jax, SP

Statistical Leaders

Royals:
Hits: Salvador Perez 148
RBIs: Salvador Perez 104
HR:  Salvador Perez  42
Wins:  Mike Minor   8
ERA:  Danny Duffy  2.51
 
Twins:
Hits:  Jorge Polanco  141
RBI’s:  Jorge Polanco  83
HR:  Jorge Polanco  27
Wins:  Jose Berrios  7
ERA:  Jose Berrios  3.48

Manager:

 

Royals: Mike Matheny
Twins:  Rocco Baldelli

Weather Forecast 

Partly Cloudy.  75* wind at 7 mph.  

 


James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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