MLB Baseball: Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/11/2021

by James Q

MLB Baseball: Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/11/2021

Game Time: 7:10 pm ET, Saturday, September 11th, 2021 
Venue: Target Field, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Where to Watch: Bally Sports Kansas City, Bally Sports North

Opening MLB Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Moneyline: Twins -140, Royals +120; Over/Under: 9 runs 
BetMGM:  Moneyline: Twins -140, Royals +120; Over/Under: 9 runs 
PointsBet:  Moneyline: Twins -140, Royals +120; Over/Under: 9 runs

Season Record

Royals: 63-77 (4th place, AL Central)
Twins:  62-78 (5th place, AL Central)
Neither of these teams have been lighting up the league.  Whether it’s Kauffman Stadium or Target Field the fans have been witness to a lot of losing.  The best part of a matchup like this is they both can’t lose.  There will be a winner.

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Royals vs Twins Preview and Analysis

Recent Form

The Royals are 4-6 over their last ten games.  Logging 3 Overs and 7 Unders.  It’s been an up and down stretch of being swept by the Cleveland Indians 0-3, Going 2-1 against the Chicago White Sox, and 2-2 against the Baltimore Orioles.  There is an odd hyper kinetic feeling to the Royals… any team that can beat the White Sox twice but get swept by the Cleveland Indians is missing something.  They are either lacking enough quality starting pitchers to handle a 10 game stretch or too occupied by their fantasy baseball numbers to actually keep their heads in today’s game.  I know, I know, There are no warranties on who is supposed to win a baseball game and Major League Baseball is full of quality players no matter the record of the club… but still?… it’s more than just win some, lose some… it’s leadership, it’s coaching, it’s the GM.

The Twins are 5-5 over their last ten games.  Check with your local betting services because they have logged 2 Overs and 8 Unders in that span.  They beat the Detroit Tigers 1-0, got swept by the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley 0-2, 1-2 against the Tampa Bay Rays, 3-1 against the Cleveland Indians.  So, this 8 Under team is about to play a 7 Under team… The Under sounds like a risk-free first bet to make this week. For entertainment purposes if you were to make some MLB picks on this game?...  These two teams are on an Under streak of 8 combined… 15 of their last 20 have gone Under. 

Offensive Analysis

The Royals are 10th in team batting average .244, 23rd in runs scored (see the disparity?) 588, 27th in home runs 145.  They are not hitting as a team so much as a bunch of mercenaries looking for stats.  They are last in BB!  30th place in walks means no one on the squad is worried about creating runs as much as they are about creating their own hits.  They are third best in the league at NOT striking out, they only have 1104 strikeouts!  The only teams better are the Houston Astros and the Toronto Blue Jays.  Where are the wins?  Why are they not taking walks?

The Twins are 16th in team batting average .241, 16th in runs scored 627, 6th in home runs 194,  and 15th in walks.  See this is a bad team with some consistency.  Where are they?  In the middle on most things on offense, vulnerable to opponents with quality pitchers, they lose to the New York Yankees but beat the Washington Nationals.  They aren’t a mystery.  They just need a little more talent added to the line-up. 

 Defensive Analysis

From the mound the Royals don’t look great either.  22nd in ERA 4.64, 27th in WHIP 1.39, 18th in strikeouts 1196. Pitcher Carlos Hernandez got the last win against the Baltimore Orioles 6 IP, gave up 3 hits, 3 BB, and 0 runs.  Carlos is 8-2 in his last 10 decisions.  There is a steep drop off after that.

The Twins are 27th in team ERA 4.90, 23rd in strikeouts 1134, 18th in WHIP 1.32.  Starting last for them was Andrew Albers in a 4-1 loss to the Indians.  He gave up 6 Hits, 3 runs, 2 HR in 4 IP.  in 16 innings on the season Andrew’s ERA is 7.16…. But on such a small sample size it just means that number could go any direction with just one more game.

Royals vs Twins Prediction

Our prediction for Saturday, September 11th is…  Twins 4 - Royals 2
Bet the Under.

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MLB Betting Trends

Royals are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
Royals are 6-2 in their last 8 games as an underdog.
Royals are 3-7 in their last 10 overall.
Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
Under is 5-1 in Royals last 6 road games.
Royals are 7-20 in the last 27 meetings in Minnesota.

Key Injuries

Royals:  Cam Gallagher  C  10 Day IL,  Jacob Junis  SP  10 Day IL
Twins:  Mitch Garver C  10 Day IL,  Taylor Rogers  RP  10 Day IL

Players to Watch

Royals:  The Royals will be starting Brady Singer RHP, 4-9, 4.58 ERA, 117 strikeouts in 116 innings pitched, 1.54 WHIP.  The 25 year old has a very clean strikeout ratio, he just needs to get flat out stop giving up so many hits.  

Twins:  The Twins will start Michael Pineda RHP, 5-8, 3.99 ERA, 76 strikeouts in 88 IP, 1.23 WHIP.  Big Mike has been around for 8 seasons and has amassed a 58-54 record. 

Notable Quotes

"Quantrill had a lot to say about a lot of things...He should keep his mouth closed and be happy he's getting guys out, rather than talking to them, because he pitched a great game." - Twins acting manager Bill Evers said about Cal Quantrill who gestured and shouted back and forth with Miguel Sano.

"It's one of the great stories in the game in my opinion,...The guy who didn't make our club coming out of spring, and now is leading our team as far as average goes, and his OPS, his quality at-bats in tough situations.”  - Manager Mike Matheny of the Royals fully admitting Royals management has no idea how to evaluate talent.

Starting Lineups

W. Merrifield, 2B
N. Lopez, SS
S. Perez, DH
A. Benintendi, LF
C. Santana, 1B
A. Mondesi, 3B
M. Taylor, CF
H. Dozier, RF
S. Rivero, C
D. Lynch, SP

B. Buxton, CF
J. Polanco, 2B
R. Refsnyder, LF
J. Donaldson, 3B
M. Sano, 1B
B. Rooker, DH
M. Kepler, RF
R. Jeffers, C
A. Simmons, SS
G. Jax, SP

Statistical Leaders

Hits: Salvador Perez 148
RBIs: Salvador Perez 104
HR:  Salvador Perez  42
Wins:  Mike Minor   8
ERA:  Danny Duffy  2.51

Hits:  Jorge Polanco  141
RBI’s:  Jorge Polanco  83
HR:  Jorge Polanco  27
Wins:  Jose Berrios  7
ERA:  Jose Berrios  3.48


Royals: Mike Matheny
Twins:  Bill Evers, he’s acting manager.

Weather Forecast 

Sunny.  79*.  Humidity 51%, wind 6 mph.  


James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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