by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Sep 13, 2021
Game time: 7:20 p.m. ET
Venue: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Where to watch: AT&T SportsNet-RM, Bally Sports South
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Braves -165, Rockies +145
BetMGM: NL
Caesars: NL
Season record
Rockies: 66-78 (4th place, NL West)
Braves: 76-66 (1st place, NL East)
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Rockies - Braves preview and analysis
Recent form
Rockies: 5-5 in last 10
Braves: 6-4 in last 10
If the Colorado Rockies can do it again, things will get very interesting.
‘Do it again’ obviously refers to going above and beyond the call of duty to play spoiler for these teams with playoff aspirations.
The Rockies just did it over the weekend in a four-game series with the Philadelphia Phillies, and not that long ago against the Atlanta Braves, whom the Rockies will see for a three-game series in Atlanta starting Tuesday.
Colorado and Atlanta will face off for the second time in less than two weeks; the two split a four-game set at Coors Field with the first three games decided by one run. Colorado followed that with a three-game set at home against the San Francisco Giants but were outscored 22-8 in the first two games.
In this weird trend of no one being able to beat the Giants, the Rockies went on the road to Citizens Bank Park and took three of four against the Phillies. Garrett Hampson led the way Sunday by driving in all five runs, and hitting two home runs, to give the Rockies a 5-4 win against the Phillies.
If the Rockies want to get wild and make a thing out of these last 18 games, they’re nine back of the Cincinnati Reds for the second wild-card spot in the NL. While that might require them to go 18-0 in the remaining contests (with six of them against the Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers), it appears Colorado is prepared to play spoiler.
And while the Braves should be thanking the Rockies for lowering the Phillies odds of winning the National League East, there’s still time for the Braves to mess things up. Atlanta’s lead in the division is down to 4.5 games on the Phillies, but the New York Mets have re-inserted themselves into the race, down five games with 18 to go.
Atlanta is coming off a series win against the Miami Marlins, taking two of three in Atlanta. Max Fried didn’t get the win Sunday in a 5-3 victory, but had a strong outing (6 IP, 7 strikeouts, 3 ER, 1 BB) to put the Braves 10 games back over .500. Freddie Freeman and Ozzie Albies also homered to pace the Atlanta offense that rebounded after a 6-4 loss to Miami on Saturday.
Touki Toussaint will throw the game’s first pitch on Tuesday when he takes the mound for the Braves. The 25-year-old right-hander is 3-2 with a 4.11 ERA and a WHIP of 1.24. He will be opposite of veteran right-hander Jon Gray (7-10, 4.18 ERA).
Prediction
Seeing how the Rockies actually played well in a series outside of Denver, the first game of this series is a toss-up. Colorado played very well when Atlanta came to Coors, but with the matchup shifting to Atlanta, it’s fair to favor the Braves here at home in the first game of this set. Braves win 6-5.
Betting trends
The Rockies are 17-29 (-3.6 net games on the money line) when an underdog of +125 to +175.
Colorado is on a 4-14 skid (-8 net games) when Gray starts and the Rockies are an underdog. Be weary if this game comes down to the relievers.
The Braves are 5-1 as a favorite when Toussaint starts.
Players to watch
Rockies: It’s been a while since we’ve discussed Trevor Story’s impact on this Rockies team. Story, the two-time All-Star, hit his 20th and 21st home runs at Philadelphia. In his last 14 games, Story has a .692 slugging percentage. He had a hit in all but one game during the road series this past weekend.
Braves: Ozzie Albies has been the one primarily responsible for picking up the slack in the absence of Ronald Acuna Jr. Albies, the two-time All-Star, has hit six home runs in the last six games while batting . 265.
Projected lineup
Rockies:
Raimel Tapia (L) LF
Brendan Rodgers (R) 2B
Charlie Blackmon (L) RF
Trevor Story (R) SS
Ryan McMahon (L) 3B
Elias Diaz (R) C
Colton Welker (R) 1B
Garrett Hampson (R) CF
Jon Gray (R) P
Braves:
Ozzie Albies (S) 2B
Jorge Soler (R) RF
Freddie Freeman (L) 1B
Austin Riley (R) 3B
Travis d'Arnaud (R) C
Joc Pederson (L) CF
Dansby Swanson (R) SS
Eddie Rosario (L) LF
Touki Toussaint (R) P
Probable starting pitchers: Gray (COL) vs. Toussaint (ATL)
Statistical leaders
Rockies:
Batting average: Raimel Tapia (.276)
Hits: Charlie Blackmon (123)
Home runs: C.J. Cron (27)
RBI: C.J. Cron (82)
Stolen bases: Raimel Tapia (20)
Wins: German Marquez (12)
Saves: Daniel Bard (20)
ERA: German Marquez (3.93)
Braves:
Batting average: Austin Riley (.297)
Hits: Freddie Freeman (157)
Home runs: Freddie Freeman (30)
RBI: Ozzie Albies (94)
Stolen bases: Ozzie Albies (17)
Wins: Charlie Morton (13)
Saves: Will Smith (32)
ERA: Max Fried (3.47)
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
