MLB Baseball: Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees Preview, Prediction & Odds - Sept. 4, 2021

by Chuck Sommers

Game time: 1:05 p.m. ET 
Venue: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Where to watch: MASN, YES, MLB Network

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings: Yankees -310, Orioles +245; Over 10 -105, Under 10 -115
Caesars: NL

Season record (entering Friday)
Orioles: 41-91 (Last place, AL East)
Yankees: 77-56 (2nd place, AL East)

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Orioles - Yankees preview and analysis

Recent form
Orioles: 3-7 in last 10
Yankees: 6-4 in last 10

After a rough go in Southern California, the New York Yankees are back home and are licking their chops.

The Yankees face the Baltimore Orioles on Saturday in the second game of their three-game series at Yankee Stadium for an early September matchup.

While the Yankees are trying to solidify their place in the American League Wild Card race, they’re also hoping to keep the home-field advantage for that one-game playoff. The Boston Red Sox enter Friday trailing the American League East rival Yankees by 1.5 games after taking two of four against the Tampa Bay Rays.

This entire series in of itself is primed for a Yankees sweep, and that’s even without Gerrit Cole likely pitching this weekend. Cole, the Cy Young candidate, had 15 strikeouts against the Los Angeles Angels on Wednesday to snap their four-game losing streak.

It’s the perfect string of ball to ensure the Yankees have completely gotten out of that funk. Aaron Judge continues to hit the ball well and make a darkhorse charge for AL MVP with his offense; he hit his 30th home run Wednesday and is creeping toward a .300 average for the first time in his big-league career.

Jordan Montgomery is on the mound getting the start for the Yankees. The left-hander carries a 5-5 record with a 3.52 ERA and a WHIP of 1.19. He’s gone into the fifth inning in his last nine starts but is 2-3 in his last decisions.

While the Orioles are trying their best to escape last place in the league, the fact is they’ve lost 24 of 27 entering Friday and are coming off losing two of three to the Toronto Blue Jays. Trusting them to win this weekend is risky. Sure, they’ve won twice this season at Yankee Stadium, but dare we think they can do it again? Likely not.


The Bronx Bombers put on a show on the road, signaling to everyone that their bats can travel. In a much easier park to hit, including a day game, we like New York in this one with the over as a play, as well.

Betting trends

The Orioles are 5-22 (-13.8 net games) when an underdog between +150 and +200 on the road.

The Yankees are only 60-46 (-13.6 games on the moneyline) when a favorite, but 14-6 when the line is -200 or more in their favor.

Players to watch

Orioles: Ryan Mountcastle has made a late charge for AL Rookie of the Year, and he’s on the verge of breaking through for that award. Since Aug. 18, Mountcastle is batting .296 and has six homers to go with 11 RBI.

Yankees: A deeper dive on how good Aaron Judge has been: Since Aug. 1, he’s batting .354 with an on-base percentage of .432. Perhaps even more surprising is he’s striking out just a shade over once a game. That OBP would be tops in the major leagues over a 162-game season.

Projected lineup

Cedric Mullins (L) CF
Ryan Mountcastle (R) DH
Austin Hays (R) LF
Trey Mancini (R) 1B
Ramon Urias (R) 3B
Anthony Santander (S) RF
Jorge Mateo (R) SS
Jahmai Jones (R) 2B
Austin Wynns (R) C

DJ LeMahieu (R) 2B
Anthony Rizzo (L) 1B
Aaron Judge (R) RF
Luke Voit (R) DH
Joey Gallo (L) LF
Kyle Higashioka (R) C
Rougned Odor (L) 3B
Andrew Velazquez (S) SS
Brett Gardner (L) CF

Projected starting pitchers: Chris Ellis (BAL) vs. Jordan Montgomery (NYY)

Statistical leaders

Batting average: Cedric Mullins (.306)
Hits: Cedric Mullins (152)
Home runs: Ryan Mountcastle (25)
RBI: Ryan Mountcastle (74)
Stolen bases: Cedric Mullins (25)
Wins: Matt Harvey (6)
Saves: Cesar Valdez (8)

Batting average: Aaron Judge (.299)
Hits: DJ LeMahieu (135)
Home runs: Aaron Judge (30)
RBI: Aaron Judge (75)
Stolen bases: Gleyber Torres (12)
Wins: Gerrit Cole (14)
Saves: Aroldis Chapman (25)
ERA: Gerrit Cole (2.73)

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Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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