MLB Baseball: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Odds and Preview - 08/29/2021

by James Q

MLB Baseball: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Odds and Preview - 08/29/2021

Game Time: 1:05 pm ET, Sunday, August 29th, 2021
Venue:  Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 
Where to Watch:  Bally Sports Arizona, NBCSP, Bally Sports Arizona (SP)


Opening MLB Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds: Arizona +170, Philly -200; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Season Record

Diamondbacks:  44-86, last place NL West
Phillies:  64-64, 2nd NL East
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Preview and Analysis

Recent Form

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 5-5 over their last ten games.  Logging 5 Overs, 4 Unders and 1 Push.  The went 2-0 against THESE Phillies, 1-2 against the Colorado Rockies, 1-2 against the Pittsburgh Pirates, and 1-1 against These phillies to kick off this four-game series (saturday results not in).  They seem to have an edge on the Phillies even though the Diamondbacks are cellar dwellers without a chance of making the postseason.  So, in the last ten they have beaten the Phillies 3-1!  The Diamondbacks are on the road here where they have gone 34-33 O/U on the road for the season.  The O/U is a coin flip.  

The Phillies are 3-7 over their last ten games.  Posting 4 Overs, 5 Unders, and 1 Push. The Push came against the Diamondbacks.  They went 0-3 vs THESE Diamondbacks, 2-1 against the San Diego Padres, 0-2 against the Tampa Bay Rays, and 1-1 THESE Diamondbacks.  The two teams last ten games don’t match up as Philly had a day off in the bunch and the result is one more Arizona win.  The Diamondbacks seem to have this team’s number.  This will be a home game for the Phillies and they are 30-32-1 at home O/U.

As the records look over the season Philly has the edge on the moneyline… but when we look head to head the dbacks won 4 games straight until Philly beat them Friday night.  Any other Arizona Diamondbacks game would lead to betting for the opponent on the money line.  This one requires a close look at the full list of pitching stats before we can make any judgement. 



Offensive Analysis

Arizona batters are 20th in team batting average .237, 22nd in runs scored 550, and a painful 29th in home runs 117… There are some teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, and Houston Astros that hit 117 back in June.  If I wagered (for entertainment purposes) whether the Giants would hit 200 (they need 5) before the Diamondbacks would hit 120 (they need 3)... I would go with the Giants everytime.  (not applicable in wv, nj, va, tn, pa… just kidding I’d make that wager anywhere.)
The Phillies batters are 21st in batting average .237 (tied with AZ technically), 16th in runs  scored 572, , and 19th in home runs 152.  The Phillies have Bryce harper, they have a northern city attitude, they have the ability to take walks (450 bb)... but are they any better than the Diamondbacks who have beaten them 4 of the last five head to heads.  Let’s look at the pitching?

Defensive Analysis

The Diamondback pitchers are 29th in ERA 5.13, 28th in strikeouts 1010, and 29th in WHIP.  If it weren’t for the Baltimore Orioles the Diamondbacks have the worst pitching staff anywhere!  Yet hope could they win 4 of 5 games against the mighty Phillies?

The Phillies are 20th in ERA 4.43, 11th in strikeouts 1160, 16th in WHIP 1.30.  So, there it is!  The Phillies must have a better starting rotation!  They must roll from Zack Wheeler to Matt Moore getting win after win… No, both those guys lost to the Diamondbacks this week.  So, What is it?

Reds vs Brewers Prediction

The difference is DIVISION.  The Diamondbacks and Phillies are the same team.  The Diamondbacks stats suffer from being in the NL West a true murderer's row of a division.  The Phillies face the New York Mets and the Washington Nationals regularly!  The Phillies are 64-64 in MLB action, the Diamondbacks are 44-86 in MLB action…. But if we swapped divisions… they would swap records.  They are the same team.  Phillies pitchers do better because they pitch to the Mets, Diamondbacks pitchers do poorly because they pitch to the Dodgers.  The same thinking is true about their lineups.  The reason the D-backs have smacked the Phillies around is they are the same team!!... and the Phillies don’t think that is the case.   So when two even teams play each other you have to look at the pitching matchup.
Arizona will start Humberto Mejia 0-0, 3.60 ERA 7 strikeouts, 5 innings of work.  His MLB career is 0-2 in 15 innings of work.    The Phillies will start Kyle Gibson 9-5, 3.06 ERA, 113 strikeouts in 144 innings pitched… career 78-79 1298.1 innings pitched since his debut in 2013.
Philly will smoke the Diamondbacks Sunday.  It won’t be close.
 My Diamondbacks vs Phillies prediction is Phillies 8  Diamondbacks 2

MLB Betting Trends

The Diamond backs are 44-86 on the moneyline, 17-50 on the moneyline in road games.  They lose road games.  Especially day road games 13-28.

The Phillies are 64-64 on the moneyline, 27-36 in road games but a staggering 30-17 in day road games.

Key Injuries

Diamondbacks :  Kole Calhoun P (hamstring) Out, Merril Kelly P (ill) Out
Phillies :  Archie Bradley P Day-to-Day, Luke Williams 3B Out, Andrew Knapp C Out

Players to Watch

Phillies:  Freddy Galvis SS had a hit, an RBI, and 2 BB against the Dbacks this week.
DBacks: Josh Rojas 3B  Had 4 hits, 3 RBI, 2 doubles and 2 BB in the last seven days.

Notable Quotes

"It's a huge game for us,....Bouncing back and coming from behind, we really needed that to get going." -Jean Segura, Philly, who had the winning single in the 11th inning against the Diamondbacks Friday night.
"Right now, it's tough to stomach," Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo said.

Starting Lineups
J. Rojas, 2B
K. Marte, CF
P. Smith, 1B
C. Kelly, C
D. Peralta, LF
J. VanMeter, 3B
D. Varsho, RF
N. Ahmed, SS
H. Mejia, P
O. Herrera, LF
J. Segura, 2B
B. Harper, RF
J. Realmuto, C
D. Gregorius, SS
B. Miller, 1B
F. Galvis, 3B
T. Jankowski, CF
A. Nola, P

Statistical Leaders

Diamondbacks :  Josh Rojas .277 batting average, Pavin Smith 114 Hits, Madison Bumgarner 4.17 ERA, Merrill Kelly 118 Strikeouts.
Phillies :  Bryce Harper .298 batting average, Jean Segura 113 hits, Zack Wheeler 2.90 ERA, Zack Wheeler 204 Strikeouts.
Diamondbacks :  Torey Lovullo
Phillies : Joe Girardi

Weather Forecast

Clear skies, Oppressive heat and humidity.

James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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