Missouri Tigers vs Vanderbilt Commodores Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 09/30/2023

Game Time: 4:00 pm ET, Saturday, September 30, 2023

Venue:  FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, TN

Where to Watch:  SEC Network

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Mizzou -13.5, Vandy +13.5; Over/Under:  56.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Mizzou -13.5, Vandy +13.5; Over/Under:  56.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Mizzou -13.5, Vandy +13.5; Over/Under:  56.5 points

Missouri Tigers:  4-0 (0-0) (5th place, SEC East)

Vanderbilt Commodores:  2-3 (0-1) (7th place, SEC East)

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Missouri Tigers:  won their last game at home against the Memphis Tigers 34-27.

Vanderbilt Commodores:  lost their last game at home against the Kentucky Wildcats 45-28.

Missouri is entering this game with a 4-0 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 0-0 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Memphis 34-27. Brady Cook was the starting QB and he completed 18/25 passes for 341 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Cody Schrader led the team in rushing yards with 123 and 1 TD. Luther Burden led the receivers with 177 receiving yards on 10 receptions. Kris Abrams-Draine led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while Chad Bailey, Johnny Walker Jr., and Darius Robinson each led the defense in sacks with 1. Kris Abrams-Draine and Marcus Clarke each came away with 1 interception for them in that game.

 

 

 

Vanderbilt is entering this game with a 2-3 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their conference games too. They are 2-1 in their home games, 0-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against Kentucky 45-28. AJ Swann was the starting QB and he completed 16/40 passes for 189 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Sedrick Alexander led the team in rushing yards with 37 and 1 TD. Gamarion Carter led the receivers with 48 receiving yards on 2 receptions. Martel Hight led the defense in that game with 3 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Yilanan Ouattara and Darren Agu each led the defense in sacks with 0.5. Jeffrey Ugochukwu came away with the only interception for them in that game.

The current betting odds have Vanderbilt listed as a 13.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Vanderbilt is 2-3 this season and they haven't looked great in their games but they have played better in their home games. They just started their conference play last week as they lost at home to Kentucky but they will be looking to bounce back in this game. Missouri is 4-0 this year as they are off to a great start but they haven't really played many tough teams and Kentucky has a much better team than they do. Missouri doesn't have a great defense either so that is going to give Vanderbilt plenty of opportunities to put up points at home here. Missouri has also pulled off 2 big wins at home against Kansas State and Memphis in their last 2 games so they are going to have a bit of a let down here, especially since this is their 1st road game of the season and their 1st conference game. Missouri has been playing well and they do have the better team so they will likely win this game still, but Vanderbilt at home in this conference game will bring their best effort after getting blown out by Kentucky so expect them to keep this game closer. The best way to place a bet here is on Vanderbilt to cover the spread in this game.

Missouri Vanderbilt Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 30, 2023 (4:00 pm ET start time) is Missouri 27 Vanderbilt 21.

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Missouri Tigers: 6-1 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 31-22 ATS after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game. 9-2 UNDER as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points. 8-3 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread.

Vanderbilt Commodores: 3-13 ATS in home games. 1-8 ATS in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56. 3-11 ATS off 1 or more straight overs. 11-6 UNDER against conference opponents. 9-5 UNDER after playing a conference game. 

Missouri Tigers:  D. Houston (WR) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. M. Cox (RB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. S. McNeil (DB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. B. Norfleet (TE) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. I. Thompson (DB) out for season - Lower Body.

Vanderbilt Commodores:  A. Swann (QB) day-to-day - Elbow. L. Patterson (LB) day-to-day - Hamstring. S. Riley (S) day-to-day - Undisclosed. J. Palmer (TE) Out indefinitely - Back. C. Spence (TE) out for season - Knee.

“We're going to celebrate this for 24 hours and transition to conference play. We've got to go on the road to open our conference season against a really explosive pass offense which hasn't exactly been our forte. We're going to have to get healthy in a hurry.” - Eli Drinkwitz after his team’s win against Memphis in their last game. 

“We've got to monitor AJ's health and availability as we move forward, but we certainly need more from that position.” - Clark Lea on his team’s starting QB after their loss against Kentucky in their last game. 

WR Wease Jr., Theo 

WR Cooper, Mookie 

WR Burden III, Luther 

TE Stephens, Tyler 

QB Cook, Brady 

RB Schrader, Cody 

WR Sheppard, Will 

WR Humphreys, London 

WR McGowan, Jayden 

TE Ball, Justin

TE Kyle, Logan 

QB Swann, AJ 

RB Smith, Patrick

Passing: B. Cook (1073)

Rushing: C. Schrader (403)

Receiving: L. Burden III (504)

Touchdowns: B. Cook (3)

Passing: A. Swann (1290)

Rushing: P. Smith (236)

Receiving: W. Sheppard (345)

Touchdowns: W. Sheppard (6)

Coaches:

Missouri Tigers: Eli Drinkwitz (4th season)

Vanderbilt Commodores: Clark Lea (3rd season)