Missouri Tigers vs SMU Mustangs Prediction Spread and Trends to Watch - 11/21/2021

by James Q

Saturday, Nov 20, 2021

Missouri Tigers vs SMU Mustangs Prediction Spread and Trends to Watch - 11/21/2021

 
Game Time: 8:00 PM  ET, Sunday, November 21st, 2021
Venue: UNF Arena
Where to Watch:  CBSSN
Tip-off Time: 8:05 PM ET
 

Opening NCAAB Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings Sportsbook:  Spread: **; Over/Under: 
Circa:  Spread: **; Over/Under:  
VegasInsider:  Spread:**; Over/Under: 
 
Opening Lines:  Missouri -6 , O/U 141
 

Season Record

Missouri: 0-0 conf, 2-1 overall (SEC)
SMU: 0-0 conf, 3-1 overall (AAC)

A Non-conference matchup, early in the college basketball season.  Missouri got their first loss and only loss so far to the UMKC Kangaroos…. Which of course stands for University of Missouri Kansas City… but you knew that.  It was “Shocking” to the local press.  It was shocking mostly because the Roos entered the game 11.5 point underdogs.  Also the last time the Tigers played the Roos was in 2014 and the Roos upset them then too.  The Roos have the Tigers number… does SMU?

The SMU Mustangs play in the American Athletic League.  They have lost 1 game so far and coincidentally it was against the 1 Power Five conference team that they have played… THough a lot of teams will lose to #12 ranked Oregon… SMU couldn’t manage much more than a small fight, final score Oregon 86 - SMU 63.  If this were football, then they lost by more than 3 touchdowns…. This raises the question of if SMU can cover the spread?... Can they contribute enough to hit the Over on the total points?... Or can they make up for that first loss of the season and get an early Power Five win in Nov.
 
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Missouri vs SMU Preview and Analysis


RECENT FORM

Mizz is 2-1 on the season, but 1-2 ATS.  They have logged 2 Overs and 1 Under.  This will be their first road game of the season.

SMU is 3-1 on the season, but 1-3 ATS.  They have notched 2 Overs and 2 Unders.  They are a perfect 3-0 at home.

OFFENSIVE ANALYSIS

SMU is ranked 80th in college basketball on offense.  They are averaging 80.5 points per game.  This ranking will flip flop around the top 200 over the next few weeks before we have played enough games to get an accurate ranking.  

Mizz is tied for 272nd in college basketball on offense.  They are averaging 66 ppg and have played a slightly stronger schedule.  This number also will change and change drastically as the strength of schedule starts to even out… especially when conference play begins.  

There is a real difference in styles between these two teams.  Mizz relies on scoring from the Center and Power Forward spot.  Center Kobe Brown is the team’s leading scorer with 14.3 ppg and 8.7 rpg.  They grind for baskets and rebounds.  SMU relies on scoring from the Point Guard spot as their star is PG Kendric Davis who is putting up 17.7 ppg and 6.3 Apg.

DEFENSIVE ANALYSIS

SMU is ranked 52nd in college basketball in defensive efficiency.  They do play stout D, just not against Oregon.

Mizz is ranked 83rd in college basketball in defensive efficiency.  They play average D, just against better competition.

Neither of these teams have played UCLA, Clemson, Memphis Tigers, Florida State, Ohio State, South Carolina… you get it.  The season is early and though we know defense is important, it’s only important now against each other.  I can safely bet that SMU isn’t as good on defense against a power five as they are against McNeese State or Southeastern Louisiana.



Missouri Tigers vs SMU Mustangs Prediction

Our prediction for Sunday, November 21st, is…  Mizz 80 - SMU 67



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NCAAF Betting Trends


These two teams have not played each other often.

Mizz is 1-1 ATS versus SMU since 1997.
Mizz is 2-0 SU against SMU since 1997.
There have been no matchups between these opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Starting Lineups
Mizz: PG Amari Davis, SG Dajuan Gordon, SF Jarron Coleman, PF Javon Pickett, C Kobe Brown

SMU: PG Kendric Davis, SG Zach Nutall, SF Emmanuel Bandoumel, PF Marcus Weathers, C Isiah Jasey

Statistical Leaders

Mizz
Points: Kobe Brown 14.3
Rebounds: Kobe Brown 8.7
Assists: Jarron Coleman 2.7
Steals: Javon Pickett 1.3
Blocks: Kobe Brown 1.7

SMU
Points: Kendric Davis 17.8
Rebounds: Marcus Weathers 8.2
Assists: Kendric Davis 6.0
Steals: Kendric Davis 1.2
Blocks: Isaiah Jasey 1.5

 

Coaches

Mizz: Cuonzo Martin;  Coach Martin was a 2nd round pick of the Atlanta Hawks in 1995.  He played in the NBA for 3 seasons.  He has been coaching at some level since 1999.  He has had the Missouri job since 2017.  His Missouri record stands at 68-57.  He needs a big year to be in position to move up to one of the big programs in college basketball.

SMU:  Tim Jankovich.  Coach Jankovich was a graduate assistant in 1984 for Texas-Pan American… he worked as an assistant through multiple programs until he got his first head coaching college basketball job in 1993 at North Texas, he was there until 1997.  He then bounced back to CC coach, assistant at various schools, head coach at Illinois State, until he landed the SMU gig in 2016.  His career mark as a head coach is 258-176.  






James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

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