Missouri Tigers vs Georgia Bulldogs Prediction Spread and Trends to Watch - 11/06/2021

by James Q

Missouri Tigers vs Georgia Bulldogs Prediction Spread and Trends to Watch - 11/06/2021

 
Game Time: 12:30 PM ET, Saturday, November 6th, 2021
Venue: Sanford Stadium, Athens, Georgia
Where to Watch: ESPN
Kickoff Time: 12:35

Opening MLB Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings Sportsbook:  Spread: Georgia -38; Over/Under: 60 points
Circa:  Spread: Georgia -38; Over/Under:  59.5 points
VegasInsider:  Spread:  Georgia -38; Over/Under: 59.5 points
 

Season Record

Missouri: 1-3 conf, 4-4 overall (SEC)
Georgia: 6-0 conf, 8-0 overall (SEC)

An SEC matchup of epic proportions.  September is over and November will be filled with positioning for a chance at the Championship game.  Missouri doesn’t have a chance at the Conference Championships … let alone winning this one.. But can they give Georgia a hard game?  Can they beat the point spread… Can they do enough to get an invite to one of the many bowl games?  The football schedule has dropped  host Georgia into Missouri’s lap.. They either play with pride or whither under the pressure.  We saw Penn State cover the spread in last weekend’s big game against Ohio State (I won a wager so big it will pay for the next 1000 wagers)... Can Missouri do this against Georgia? A 38 point spread is an amazingly large number!
 
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Michigan State vs Purdue Preview and Analysis

RECENT FORM

Missouri has floundered all season.  They have lost to Texas A&M Aggies, Tennessee Volunteers, Kentucky Wildcats, and… The Boston College Eagles.  Not all those teams are as good as Texas A&M… or even in the same class.  They have beaten junk. Small school, tiny program junk (sorry Vanderbilt).

Georgia is the top dog.  They have beaten the Clemson Tigers (7 point, close), UAB ( 49 point blowout), the South Carolina Gamecocks (27 point blowout), Vanderbilt (62 point blowout), the Arkansas Razorbacks (37 point blowout), the Auburn Tigers (24 point win), the Kentucky Wildcats (17 point win), and the Florida Gators (27 point win).  A 38 point point spread is extreme.  Georgia has only beaten two of the 8 teams by more than 37.  Plus at a 35 point difference how many coaches run their first team through high-level plays in the fourth quarter?  By the second half of most Georgia games we end up watching the Next Georgia Bulldogs as the bench empties.  Let’s look at the numbers below to find out if Georgia can cover such an extreme spread.
 

Offensive Analysis

Missouri is ranked 25th in the FBS on offense.  They have scored 33 touchdowns on 452.8 ypg.  These numbers are good, but inflated by the easy wins Missouri put on their schedule to stay relevant during a bad season.  Missouri is well balanced coming in 25th in passing offense with 278.2 ypg and 57th in rushing offense with 174.5 ypg.  If Missouri managed 17 points against Georgia, Georgia would need 56 points to cover the spread… which would be almost the entire O/U point total.
 
Georgia has the 51st ranked offense in the FBS.  They have scored 34 touchdowns on 420.6 yards per game.  They are not a pass happy offense, falling all the way to 73rd in the FBS in passing offense.  They have passed for 18 touchdowns on 227.9 ypg…. It’s the running that does the magic.  Georgia is 38th in the FBS in rushing offense.  They have 16 rushing touchdowns on 192.8 yards per game.  In pass happy college football Georgia will smash you in the mouth and run it down your gut.

Defensive Analysis

Georgia is the #2 ranked defense in the FBS.  They have given up only 6 touchdowns on 226.6 yards per game.  They give a whole new meaning to “stingy”.  The high point of the year is sacks!!  Georgia has 26 on the season in only 8 games. Twitter share, facebook share… whatever… some of the beat sacks you will see all year will happen in this game.

Missouri has the 124th ranked defense in the FBS.  Some of the games they have lost look like college basketball scores on the other side…. But not 38 points worth.  Missouri’s best defensive stat is Interceptions.. They have 9 on the year.  The problem is Georgia will run the ball most of the day.


Missouri vs Georgia Prediction

Our prediction for Saturday, November 6th, is… Georgia 48 - Missouri 13

It’s a sucker’s bet… Georgia will win and win big, but they will not cover 38 points.  They have no reason to keep pushing after they have a 28 point lead.  They will only have reason to ignore the player props and rest starters in anticipation of facing the Alabama Crimson Tide (eventually) while still healthy.
 
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NCAAF Betting Trends

Missouri is 1-11 ATS in road games over the last 3 seasons.
Missouri is 3-8 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
Georgia is 6-2 ATS this season.
Georgia is 17-12 ATS as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
Georgia is 5-2 ATS as a favorite this season.


Key Injuries

Missouri: WR Mookie Cooper (undisclosed) Quest ** DB Allie Green IV (undisclosed) Quest ** WR Kris Abrams-Draine (undisclosed) Quest ** DL Ben Key (undisclosed) Quest

Georgia: WR Arik Gilbert (personal) Quest ** WR Dominick Blaylock (hamstring) Quest ** LB Rian Davis (quad) Quest ** WR Justin Robinson (hamstring) Quest

Starting Lineups

Missouri: Quarterback Connor Bazelak, RB Tyler Badie, TE Daniel Parker JR, WR Tauskie Dove, WR Keke Chism, WR Barrett Banister, LT Javon Foster, LG Xavier Delgado, OC Michael Maietti, RG Luke Griffin, RT Hyrin White

Georgia: QB JT Daniels, RB Zamir White, TE Brock Bowers, WR Adonai Mitchell, WR Jermaine Burton, WR Ladd McConkey, LT Jamaree Salyer, LG Justin Shaffer, OC Sedrick Van Pran, RG Warren Ericson, RT Warren McClendon

Coaches

Missouri: Eliah Drinkwitz.  Since October started it’s been apparent that Eric would have a bad season.  He was hired in 2020 and this is not entirely his team yet.  Give him some seasons of recruiting before we find out if the 38 year old is worth $4 million a season to go .500.

Georgia: Kirby Smart. Kirby wins at Georgia.  He is 60-14.  He is earning his $6.43 million a year.

Weather Forecast

Sunny.  72*, 0% chance of precipitation, humidity at 35%, and wind at 5 mph at local time 4PM.  Football weather for the .  There were no leftover tickets in Sep… 


James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

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